Late to the EM rate-cutting party

We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Friday 6th October. Further ahead, our view is that the RBI will begin loosening policy at the start of 2024, but a severe El Niño threatens to push back the start of the easing cycle closer to the middle of next year, which would be a lot later than in many other major EMs.

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