India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Headline consumer price inflation accelerated to a 15-month high of 7.4% y/y in July amid the surge in food price inflation. While the RBI expects the sharp increase in food prices to prove transitory... 14th August 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI cautious, government aims to cool food price rise The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% as expected this week and maintained a hawkish tone amid the recent surge in food prices. And while several policy measures announced by the government this... 11th August 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Government capex boom, RBI to dial up hawkishness All eyes will be on the RBI's policy decision on Thursday, which has become less of a formality given the surge in food prices. We still think that the central bank will keep the repo rate on hold at... 4th August 2023 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged down in July to a three-month low, and we expect higher rates and subdued global demand to weigh more substantially on manufacturing activity over the coming months. 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly BJP faces no-confidence vote, July inflation surge The no-confidence vote that has been triggered against Prime Minister Modi's BJP is highly unlikely to lead to the fall of the government given the BJP's sizeable parliamentary majority. But it may... 28th July 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Investment growth entering a softer patch Investment held up well in the first half of the year but the recent moderation in credit growth and the messages from the latest survey data suggest that it is going to enter a softer patch over the... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly How will the rice export ban affect the economy? The partial ban on rice exports announced this week will have a small impact on India's trade balance and, similarly, it is unlikely to reduce inflation much either. The bigger concern for... 21st July 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the most recent data and developments as well as our latest analysis. Our View: India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil and, with... 19th July 2023 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Rice export ban looms, Foxconn U-turn As the El Niño threat mounts, speculation over a ban on rice exports is growing. A ban would probably help to keep a lid on domestic prices but have severe implications for the global market... 14th July 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Food inflation concerns are mounting The upside risks to our inflation forecasts for this year are building given the sharp rise in vegetable prices in July and El Ni ño related weather uncertainties. We aren't inclined to forecast... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged down in June after reaching a 31-month high in the previous month. This points to slight cooling in growth in the manufacturing sector and we think further slowdown... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Food price concerns come to the fore Concerns over a pick-up in food inflation have been growing in recent days given the spike in vegetable prices. The inflation picture could change very quickly given how volatile prices can be, but we... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities are diminishing The sharp narrowing in India’s current account deficit in Q1 was largely due to the strength in services exports. Looking ahead, we think the deficit will narrow to 1.0% of GDP across 2023 as a result... 28th June 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Strengthening of India-US ties to boost manufacturing The sweeping agreements on trade and defence announced during Narendra Modi’s state visit to the US this week underline that India’s government and firms increasingly see their interests as favouring... 23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jun 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 20th June 2023 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Q3 Outlook, inflation plunge, policy pivot? The overarching message from our Q3 India Outlook is that policy rate cuts will soon come on to the agenda as the economy enters a mild slowdown and inflation settles at comfortable rates over the... 16th June 2023 · 3 mins read
