India Economics Weekly Election manoeuvres, hawkish RBI, Q1 Outlook The surge in the Sensex this week - to a fresh record high today - following the announcement of the BJP’s victories in three state elections is perhaps an indication that investors are confident that... 8th December 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Solid growth in run-up to election India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government spending, we think it will continue to hold up well ahead of next year’s general election. Given also... 5th December 2023 · 19 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The manufacturing PMI survey for November suggests that activity continues to remain strong in Q4. The economy is on course to grow by 7.0% this year, a pick up from 6.7% last year. 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response GDP (Q3) The RBI had stated that the GDP data for Q3 (Q2 of FY23/24) would “surprise everyone on the upside” and, even despite that spoiler, the data came in much stronger than expectations. While economic... 30th November 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Economy performing exceptionally well India’s economy recorded solid growth in the first half of this year and continues to do so in the second half. While economic activity is likely to slow a touch over the coming quarters, we think GDP... 24th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Japanese rates at 2%? China’s economic outlook, RBI preview and more 30th November 2023, 8:00AM GMT Our latest monthly Drop-In on the big macro and market stories in Asia focused on new analysis making the case for Japanese inflation and the Bank of Japan policy rate both to hit 2% by 2030. We also…
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy continues to show resilience this year and annual GDP growth is likely to come in... 23rd November 2023 · 1 min read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) Headline consumer price inflation edged down to a four-month low of 4.9% y/y in October, but that’s already old news given the renewed surge in vegetable prices so far in November. 13th November 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly State elections, grain scheme extension, food inflation The extension of the free food grain scheme by another five years is clearly geared towards firming up support for the BJP ahead of state elections this month (as well as the general election next... 10th November 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rise in unemployment rate not a big macro concern At face value, a sharp rise in unemployment last month suggests that the Indian economy is rapidly losing momentum. But on closer inspection, the increase was entirely caused by rising joblessness in... 3rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The manufacturing PMI survey for October suggests that activity lost some momentum at the start in Q4. We think that the sector will continue to slow over the coming months as the impact of higher... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly India’s manufacturing ambitions constrained by energy India’s government is pushing ahead with efforts to make the country a key link in global manufacturing supply chains. But the increasing strain that the power network has come under over the past... 27th October 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Rise in unsecured lending exposes India’s weak spot Continued strong growth in unsecured lending is putting India’s banks at risk of rising defaults, a concern that is exacerbated by their relatively low loan loss absorption capacity. This raises the... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Elections come into focus, RBI won’t relax yet Pre-election giveaways seem to have started in India and are likely to be ramped up further ahead of next year's general election. Although this could cause the Finance Ministry to narrowly miss its... 20th October 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy appears still to be holding up well in the second half of the year. And although... 18th October 2023 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Investment growth shows signs of softening Investment growth held up well in the first half of the year but there are signs that it is entering a softer patch. Meanwhile, despite the encouraging inflation data from September, the RBI is... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read
