US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) We are assuming that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs becomes permanent, keeping tariffs at 10% for most countries except China which will face a steeper 60% levy. If Congress quickly redirects... 23rd April 2025 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) A large drag from net trade will likely tip GDP growth into negative territory this quarter but we should see a rebound in Q2. Nonetheless, we expect quarterly growth to be weaker this year on average... 20th March 2025 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) The economy continues to do well with GDP growing strongly and employment growth solid. We are concerned, however, that the Trump administration’s policies will weigh on GDP growth over the course of... 18th February 2025 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) The economy continues to do well with GDP growing strongly, employment growth solid and core inflation pressures easing again. We are concerned, however, that the Trump administration’s policies will... 21st January 2025 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) The latest FOMC meeting suggests the Fed already has its eye on President-elect Donald Trump’s inflationary policy changes. We have therefore revised up our forecast for the terminal fed funds target... 23rd December 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) In response to Donald Trump’s election win and the likelihood that his policies will be inflationary, we have revised up our forecast for the terminal fed funds target range in 2025 by 50bp, to... 18th November 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Recessions fears continue to go unfounded, with the labour market still in good health after the strong September employment report. Prospects for October look weaker due to recent temporary... 17th October 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) After kicking off its loosening cycle with a 50bp cut, we suspect the Fed will now revert to 25bp moves until the fed funds target range reaches 3.00% to 3.25% in mid-2025. Looser monetary policy... 19th September 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) The weaker July employment report and another set of mild inflation data mean the Fed remains on track to cut interest rates in September. With the activity data still supportive of our view that the... 19th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (July 2024) The recent set of mild inflation data and growing concerns among Fed officials about downside risks to the labour market reinforce our view that the first interest rate cut will come in September. We... 22nd July 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (June 2024) The recent encouraging inflation data reinforce our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. We remain confident that core inflation is heading back to the 2% target, which should allow... 24th June 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May 2024) The slight easing of inflationary pressures in April and softer activity data are consistent with the Fed cutting interest rates in September. Although it is taking a little longer than expected, we... 21st May 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The recent upturn in activity and employment growth and the resilience of core inflation suggest that the Fed won't start cutting interest rates until later this year. But although it is taking a... 18th April 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Faltering consumer spending reinforces our view that GDP growth will slow this year, although that slowdown is likely to be modest. After a disappointing couple of months for inflation, easing demand... 25th March 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The economy continues to appear impervious to higher interest rates and, although we expect growth to slow over the first half of this year, that slowdown is likely to be modest. But we don’t expect... 21st February 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) As core PCE inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of this year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting from March onwards, with rates eventually... 22nd January 2024 · 1 min read
