US Chart Pack An unambiguous strengthening in activity The incoming news on activity has been unambiguously strong and, when taken together with the boost from the further fall in oil prices, has made us more confident that GDP will grow by at least 3%... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Slump in gasoline prices an unexpected boon The unexpected slump in the national retail gasoline price, from a peak of $3.80 per gallon in the summer to a near four-year low of $3.00 now, will provide a sizeable boost to fourth-quarter real... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Drop in jobless claims illustrates labour market strength There are still areas of the labour market where conditions could be better, particularly the elevated number of part-time workers looking for full-time work and the lack of a meaningful acceleration... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation will bounce back Despite the weaker core inflation readings over the past couple of months, we still expect core inflation to climb gradually, rising above the Fed's 2% target in the first half of next year... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack A stronger and more widespread recovery Both businesses and households have started to enjoy the fruits of an economicrecovery that appears to be becoming stronger and more widespread. A weightedaverage of the two ISM business activity... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Widening trade deficit due to strong domestic demand Although the trade deficit has widened in recent months, the increase is largely due to the strength of imports rather than the weakness of exports. Our calculations suggest that exports increased at... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Industrial recovery gathering momentum The weather-related slump in activity in the first quarter persuaded many that the US economic recovery would remain lacklustre. The fundamentals look a lot better now, however, with credit... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Price pressures are strengthening There is now enough evidence to conclude that price pressures are strengthening. The increase in CPI inflation to 2.0% in April left it in line with the Fed’s target and core inflation rose to an... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack GDP growth to bounce back in Q2 The incoming data over the past few weeks suggest that activity and employment rebounded in March, as the weather-related distortion that affected the winter months began to unwind. Our latest... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Threat from twin deficits quietly fades The current account and Federal budget deficits have narrowed markedly over the past few years, indicating that the US economy is the closest it has been to both internal and external balance in more... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Falling unemployment rate forces Fed into rethink With the unemployment rate falling to 6.6% in January, leaving it only trivially above the 6.5% threshold, the Fed will soon need to update its forward guidance on when it might begin to raise the fed... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Recovery becomes more resilient Our estimate that GDP grew at a decent annualised rate of 3.5% in the fourth quarter even though activity was hit by the Federal government shutdown and the unusually bad weather suggests that the... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Retail sales growth accelerating The recent pick-up in the growth rate of underlying retail sales suggests that we are finally seeing a strengthening in domestic demand. It may well be sustained too. Coming out of the recession, the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Economic growth grinding higher The pick-up in GDP growth to 2.8% annualised in the third quarter, from 2.5% in the second, suggests that as the fiscal drag fades, the recovery is strengthening. On the whole, the latest monthly data... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Policy uncertainty will persist for some time Congress has thankfully agreed to reopen the Federal government and raise the debt ceiling, but the short-term fix means that fiscal uncertainty will continue to act as a drag on the economic recovery... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Recovery appears to be gathering pace The Fed's apparently isn't convinced yet, but the improvement evident in many of the key forward-looking indicators suggests that economic growth is accelerating. The surge in both the manufacturing... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read