US Chart Pack Drop in inflation will keep Fed on hold for now The unexpected decline in core inflation over recent months is only partly due to transient factors and suggests that, after raising rates twice in the first half of the year, the Fed will hike rates... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Second-quarter rebound driven by consumer spending The latest data indicate that GDP growth has rebounded to nearly 3% annualised in the second quarter, mainly due to a similar-sized gain in real consumption growth. Indeed, although underlying retail... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Incoming data make the Fed’s job more difficult The latest decline in the core CPI inflation rate to 1.9% in April, at the same time as the unemployment rate dropped to a decade low of 4.4%, presents a dilemma for the Fed. The price stability part... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation restrained by new competitive pressures The drop back in core CPI inflation to a 17-month low of 2.0% in March was partly due to weather effects, but also reflects an increase in competitive pressures in some sectors, which will persist for... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong surveys suggest economy is on the right track The activity data for January and February suggest that the economy got off to a slow start to the year. Our calculations suggest that first-quarter GDP growth will be a modest 2% annualised... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rebound in inflation gives Fed less wiggle room The rise in CPI inflation to a five-year high of 2.5% in January was principally due to a surge in gasoline prices, which appears to have been partly reversed in February. Nevertheless, with headline... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack America first President Donald Trump’s inauguration speech left no one in any doubt that his administration will pursue trade protectionism aggressively. He argued for putting “America first” and that “protection... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Survey evidence points to solid GDP growth The survey evidence has strengthened considerably in recent months and even though fourth-quarter GDP growth will probably fall back to 2.2% annualised, as the third-quarter spike in exports is... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Trump win raises prospect of fiscal stimulus Donald Trump’s election victory has raised the prospect of a major fiscal stimulus next year, at a time when the economy is already close to full employment. The subsequent surge in Treasury yields... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Economy still struggling to shake off its malaise GDP growth does appear to have accelerated in the third quarter but, after a year of below potential growth, the economy is still struggling to shake off the effects of the stronger dollar and the... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Mixed signals surrounding strength of Q3 GDP growth A marked gap has opened up between the incoming expenditure-based data, which point to a healthy rebound in third-quarter GDP growth and the production-based business survey evidence, which has... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Real consumption growth will inevitably slow The stagnation in retail sales in July was not entirely surprising. Following the 4.2% annualised surge in real consumption in the second quarter, it was inevitable that spending growth would ease to... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Surge in real consumption drives Q2 GDP growth Our calculations indicate that second-quarter GDP growth accelerated to 2.5% annualised, thanks primarily to a massive 4.5% surge in real consumption. The latter would mark the biggest quarterly gain... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Second-quarter GDP growth looks good Despite the apparent slowdown in the labour market, the latest activity data point to a solid rebound in second-quarter GDP growth. Growth in underlying retail sales reached a two-year high in May... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack June rate hike far from a done deal The minutes of the April FOMC meeting and subsequent comments by various Fed officials have prompted speculation that the Fed could raise interest rates as soon as next month. Treasury yields have... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Survey evidence points to second-quarter rebound The recent activity data indicate that first-quarter GDP growth slowed to just 0.8% annualised. However, we expect this to prove only a temporary setback rather than the start of a more serious... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read