Soft overseas demand, the past rises in interest rates and higher taxes mean that GDP will grow by only 1.0% in 2026. And it's only a matter of time before the recent weakening in the labour market, as shown by our proprietary UK labour market indicators, leads to slower wage growth and contributes to CPI inflation falling to 2.0% this year. That will allow the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 3.75% now to 3.00% rather than to the low of 3.50% as investors anticipate.