Possible tax rises in the Budget on 26th November risk further restraining housing activity next year. And while we think that Bank Rate will fall from 4.00% now to 3.00% in 2026, rather than to the low of 3.50% priced into the financial markets, lingering fiscal concerns suggest gilt yields and therefore mortgage rates may provide a smaller boost to house prices next year too. That suggests the risks to our above-consensus forecast for house prices to rise by 5.0% in the year to Q4 2026 lie to the downside.