If the rise in mortgage rates due to the conflict in the Middle East is sustained, house price growth in the year to Q4 2026 and Q4 2027 will probably be softer than our forecast of 3.5% and 3.0% respectively. With mortgage affordability most stretched in London and the South East, higher mortgage rates will probably hit prices in those regions harder than elsewhere. (Clients can explore and download all our UK housing forecasts in our UK Housing Data Dashboard.)