Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia & China: a “no limits” partnership with limits Russia and China declared a “no limits” partnership in 2022, but the economic limits to the relationship have become increasingly clear. Chinese FDI in Russia remains low, bilateral trade is... 25th November 2025 · 20 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine peace plan, Hungary rates, Israel’s recovery Details of the latest US-Russian led peace plan to end the war in Ukraine suggest that Washington is willing to make significant concessions to Moscow in negotiations, but the proposal is likely to... 21st November 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Thinking through a potential end to the war in Ukraine Media reports suggest that the US and Russia are drafting a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, seemingly on terms favourable to Russia. Were this to materialise, a lack of sufficient security... 20th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Market scepticism over fresh sanctions on Russian oil While the threat of fresh US sanctions on Russian oil producers drove crude prices up by ~8% this week, market participants appear to be treating the risk with a degree of scepticism. That leaves the... 24th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus A primer on the Ukraine ‘reparations loan’ The EU appears close to agreeing on a loan for Ukraine, backed by frozen Russian assets, that would be repaid by eventual reparations. This Focus explores the macroeconomic implications. The short... 23rd October 2025 · 10 mins read
Commodities Update Drone strikes, Russia’s oil sector & the upside risk to oil The oil market has largely shrugged off the damage from Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure so far. That said, the damage to Russian refinery and export capacity so far, and... 6th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly War pressures in Russia prompt further fiscal tightening Russia’s draft budget for 2026-28 announced this week suggests that policymakers are committed to fiscal tightening, through tax hikes to raise additional revenue and efforts to control military and... 26th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Supply uncertainties re-emerge as key driver of prices For all the recent focus on soft demand dynamics, developments on the supply side have been the main driver of oil prices this week. Heightened uncertainty is driving pessimism among US oil producers... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: limited boost from defence spending surge Poland has ramped up defence spending faster than any other NATO country in the past few years, but we estimate that the boost to GDP growth has been less than 0.2%-pts per year. A high reliance on... 10th September 2025 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Ukraine security guarantees, Israel & geopolitical risk The intensification of talks to end the war in Ukraine signals cautious progress, but Russia and Ukraine remain far apart in their key demands. And Russia’s recalcitrance has become increasingly clear... 22nd August 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The Trump-Putin meeting & implications for the Ukraine war The announcement that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday has increased the possibility of a scenario in which the Ukraine war ends on terms favourable to Russia. That could... 11th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Trump-Putin meeting, chip tariffs, hawkish CNB The touted Trump-Putin meeting next week has re-focused attention on efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, but we are sceptical much will be achieved given Putin’s maximalist territorial... 8th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Can energy markets eat secondary tariffs on Russia? In light of President Trump's announcement of a reduced deadline of 10 to 12 days for Russia to make progress towards ending the war in Ukraine, we are re-sending this Update assessing the... 14th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Grain prices won’t plummet if war in Ukraine ends Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused grain prices to surge to record levels in 2022, but a peace deal won’t lead to large falls in prices. This is mainly because Ukrainian grain production has already... 27th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Expansion & integration: the future of EU enlargement The push to enlarge the EU has gained momentum since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, but accession progress is likely to be slower than many expect. While some candidate countries stand a good... 20th May 2025 · 32 mins read
