UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to Commercial Property (Apr.) 1st June 2023 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Rise in mortgage rates will trigger renewed downturn The upward revision to our Bank Rate forecast suggests that mortgage rates will return to a similar peak as last autumn by the end of the year. That would undermine the recent pick-up in mortgage... 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Tight supply limits US and UK house price falls The increase in mortgage rates has been the main determinant of the size of house price falls in developed market economies. Very tight supply in the US, and to a lesser extent the UK, has also... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Apr.) Net commercial real estate (CRE) lending slowed sharply once again in April. Lending against all commercial sectors turned negative for the first time in nearly six years, and with little in the way... 15th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Longer mortgage terms ease affordability constraints Borrowing over a longer period significantly reduces monthly mortgage payments. So the accelerated shift towards loans with a term of 35 or 40 years rather than 25 has probably helped to mitigate the... 15th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sweden's property credit crunch intensifies The recent downgrading of Swedish property company SBB’s credit rating to “junk” and the ensuing market fallout have highlighted financing fragilities in the Swedish property market. But, while SBB is... 11th May 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Mar.) Even as commercial property investment has collapsed, net lending to property has been stable at close to zero since the start of the year. That suggests investors are building up war chests to snap... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Mar.) The rise in mortgage approvals in March was stronger than consensus expectations, reflecting the reversal of the spike in mortgage rates since the autumn. However, we don’t think that mortgage rates... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) The slight rise in mortgage applications in April left them little changed from their recent lows, pointing to further near-term weakness in sales. While we expect affordability will gradually improve... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage rates unlikely to fall further As mortgage lenders’ net interest margins are already very narrow, the increase in market interest rates over the past fortnight means that the decline in mortgage rates from their spike after the... 20th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Mar.) March’s net commercial real estate lending slowed sharply following SVB’s collapse early in the month. Lending against multifamily fell for the first time in 18 months, driven by a reduction in small... 17th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q1 2023) The headline mortgage availability balance of the credit conditions survey turned positive for the first time in over a year in Q1. The collapse of SVB while the survey was in the field probably helps... 13th April 2023 · 3 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack Affordability shapes London performance The Land Registry report that London house price growth slowed to 3.2% y/y in January and more timely data based on mortgage approvals show a 2.2% y/y fall in prices in Q1. The detail suggests that... 6th April 2023 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Where are the risks from US commercial real estate greatest? While we expect a more-than 20% peak-to-trough price correction for US commercial real estate, offices face a much tougher outlook, with large falls in net operating incomes compounding the broader re... 4th April 2023 · 14 mins read
US Housing Market Update Housing market insulated from banking crisis The latest mortgage market data show that the banking crisis has, so far, had a minimal impact on the housing market. While spreads have increased, overall mortgage rates have dropped and applications... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Downturn moderates, but outlook remains challenging The partial reversal of the spike in mortgage rates following the “mini” budget has helped to stem the deterioration in housing market demand. Our measure of the average quoted mortgage rate has... 30th March 2023 · 10 mins read
