UK Housing Market Update Later rate cuts are the biggest risk to the recovery Current fixed mortgage rates of around 4.6% are based on investors’ forecast that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.25% to 4.50% by the end of the year. We think that rates will be reduced a bit faster... 13th February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (January) There was a surprisingly sharp increase in the amount of outstanding commercial real estate (CRE) debt held by commercial banks in January, which rose by $10.7bn, the largest monthly increase since... 12th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus How big a threat is debt distress in Europe? Falling interest rates will not prevent a rise in refinancing distress in Europe in the coming years – debt funding gaps will be large and forced selling will increase. However, financing pressures... 7th February 2024 · 20 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Jan. 2024) The average mortgage rate in January was unchanged from the month before, but that didn’t prevent mortgage applications for home purchase rising for a third consecutive month. And with interest rates... 7th February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Distressing state of affairs for some multifamily investors Recent headlines have drawn attention to the immediate risks facing multifamily investors and lenders. While we think this concern is appropriate, we think the biggest risks face assets financed at... 5th February 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Dec. 2023) December’s money and credit figures suggest the transition from interest rates being a drag on activity to being a boost is beginning. This lends some support to our view that the economic recovery... 30th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Dec. 23) Net lending to commercial property increased for the tenth consecutive month in December, but investment sentiment remained downbeat. Looking ahead, we expect investment to slowly recover over H1 2024... 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Questions from our latest US housing drop-in We held a 20-minute online briefing this week to discuss our new forecast for the US housing market in 2024. You can watch the recording of the “drop-in” here. This Update recaps our answers to the... 25th January 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why we see more distress coming in 2024 We expect evidence of distress to ramp up this year as loan extensions end. Many borrowers will be forced to either inject new capital, return assets to lenders or sell into a soft market. Those... 22nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Jan 2024) If we are right to think that the Bank of England will begin lowering interest rates in June, the recent fall in mortgage rates should be sustained. The resulting drop in the cost of borrowing will... 22nd January 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2023) The latest Credit Conditions Survey showed a rise in the availability of mortgage credit in Q4 as financial market interest rates fell, but demand for mortgages slipped as mortgage rates took time to... 18th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack We anticipate that mortgage rates will continue to fall in 2024, but more gradually than they have recently from 6.8% now to 6.25% by the end of the year. That won’t be enough to bring a great deal of... 17th January 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (Dec) Net lending on commercial real estate (CRE) by banks was positive again in December, rising by $4.2bn in the month. (See Table 1.) That said, the monthly change was broadly in line with the average in... 16th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Key US housing market calls for 2024 We doubt that the modest fall in mortgage rates we anticipate this year will bring a great deal more stock onto the market. Because of that, the supply of existing homes will remain very tight, so we... 12th January 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Five key calls for US commercial real estate in 2024 Our total returns forecasts for 2024 are significantly below consensus, as we predict that value falls will reach double digits for the second consecutive year. Retail stands out as the only sector... 9th January 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update 2023 in review In what was an extremely volatile year for the housing market, we made two key forecasting errors. Firstly, we didn’t anticipate the extent of the rise in mortgage rates. Because of that, we... 5th January 2024 · 4 mins read
