China Economics Update Rising US tariffs to test China’s exchange rate policy With US tariffs now escalating, the key question is whether the People’s Bank (PBOC) will allow the exchange rate to adjust in response. We think it ultimately will, just as it did during the first... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Tunisia’s central bank, Egypt and benefits of the policy shift Tunisia’s President Saied has renewed his siege on the country’s central bank and seems set on having the state take control over its responsibilities, which adds to our concerns about the risk of a... 27th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb. 2025) On aggregate, EM capital markets have continued to experience outflows in recent weeks and it’s hard to see a significant turnaround given that President Trump’s proposed policies would likely result... 26th February 2025 · 0 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (February 2025) India’s economy is in the midst of a softer patch which we think will continue for a few more quarters. Headline CPI inflation is now within touching distance of the Reserve Bank’s 4% target and looks... 26th February 2025 · 1 min read
FX Markets Update AUD & NZD: The Trump Trade’s worst victims? The Australian and New Zealand dollars have fared worse than almost every other currency over the past few months. We think they will continue to do so. 25th February 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Here’s what China can offer to buy from the US The chances of a trade deal between the US and China, similar to the Phase One deal of Trump's first term, appear to be rising. In this note, first published in February, we examined what China could... 25th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Inflation rises ahead of growing tariff threats The January CPI release highlighted the upside risks to the inflation outlook but, with US tariff threats continuing to pile up, there is still good reason for the Bank of Canada to continue its... 21st February 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump turns the screw on tariffs One month after returning to the White House, President Donald Trump continues to issue new tariff threats, this week taking aim at imports of motor vehicles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. His... 21st February 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ exporters struggling even without higher US tariffs Euro-zone exports have performed poorly for several years and the outlook is poor even if the EU does not get into a trade war with the US. We suspect that US tariffs will be only a small additional... 21st February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: more tariff threats, Germany votes President Trump’s statement this week that he plans tariffs on pharmaceuticals as well as motor vehicles is just the latest in a long list of protectionist threats. For now, we still think the risk to... 21st February 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (February 2025) EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of 2024 but faces headwinds this year from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary... 20th February 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) The latest data suggest that, outside China, the world economy lost a bit of momentum heading into 2025. Around the turn of the year, manufacturing output kept treading water, retail sales weakened in... 20th February 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily China’s renminbi dilemma We still think the PBOC will allow the renminbi to depreciate against the US dollar, perhaps quite significantly, by the end of the year. 20th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA Budget 2025, Trump Protectionism In South Africa, next week will see the Treasury present its budget for 2025, an event in which we think the government will struggle to balance the trade-offs of recommitting to fiscal tightening... 14th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump keeps Europe on its toes All eyes were on Washington this week as President Trump rung the bells for the next phase of a trade war with the EU and sidestepped European leaders with a possible Ukraine peace deal. While... 14th February 2025 · 7 mins read
