Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Outlook: Tariffs not the only headwind Mexico is one of the most vulnerable countries to US import tariffs and, at best, the economy will just about eke out positive growth this year. More sweeping tariffs than we have embedded in our... 20th March 2025 · 21 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Kuwait debt law, Morocco interest rates, ceasefire ends Kuwait’s new public debt law is likely to be passed soon and should allow for a looser fiscal stance, something that shouldn’t raise any concerns given the debt-to-GDP ratio is less than 5%. Elsewhere... 20th March 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Is India turning less protectionist? India has long had a relatively protectionist trade policy but, driven in part by the reciprocal tariff threat from the US, there appears to be a slight shift in approach from policymakers. Import... 20th March 2025 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (March 2025) India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary... 20th March 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mapping China’s presence in Latin America China’s presence in Latin America is increasingly seen as a strategic threat by the US. This Focus uses interactive charts to map out economic, financial and institutional linkages between China and... 19th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Metals tariffs in full effect; oil faces demand headwinds US steel and aluminium producers have different scopes to respond to the tariffs implemented this week, which is why we expect the price premium for aluminium in the US to persist for longer than... 14th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s policy shift one year on Egyptian authorities are on the path towards restoring macroeconomic stability and received a strong endorsement from the IMF this week. The next – and potentially more complex – phase will be... 13th March 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Mar. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Rises in oil output from OPEC+, starting in April will gradually provide a... 13th March 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A fresh look at the “turnaround EMs” The policy turnarounds that have continued in Argentina, Egypt, Nigeria and Turkey have led to a sharp reduction in sovereign risk premia but have had mixed success in restoring macroeconomic... 12th March 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economic Outlook India Outlook: Economy well-placed to weather tariff storm India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary... 11th March 2025 · 17 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Trudeaunomics is dead, whatever happens Recent shifts in the polls suggest new Liberal Party leader Mark Carney and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre are both in with a decent chance of winning the forthcoming general election. The... 10th March 2025 · 18 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s tariff cuts unlikely to curb high food inflation The announcement by Brazil’s government that it will cut import tariff rates to zero for several food products underscores the government’s concerns about rising inflation and its own falling... 10th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Exporters still face hit despite tariff exemption The US tariff exemption for USMCA-compliant goods still leaves considerable uncertainty for the economy because less than 40% of exports to the US last year were formally USMCA compliant. The share... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Economic Weekly: The rand's shaky outlook, Angola's latest Article IV The rand may have rallied this week on the news that South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed in 2024, but we think worse terms of trade, GNU instability and the associated risks in the public... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Q1 fiscal tightening to reverse before long While the annual budget presented at the NPC implies an acceleration in fiscal expenditure this year, early signs are that spending has slowed in Q1, weighing on economic activity. Fiscal spending... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
