Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Takeaways from Egypt FM briefing; our latest forecasts The key takeaways from a recent briefing with Egypt’s Finance Minister Mohammed Maait are that the government is committed to keeping fiscal policy tight and bringing the government debt-to-GDP ratio... 22nd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil output cuts driving Gulf slowdown Economic growth across the region will be much weaker this year than last and our forecasts are generally below the consensus. We think regional growth will come in at just 1.4%, one of the weakest... 21st June 2023 · 20 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Stagflation to drag on, rates near peak We expect the mild recession in the euro-zone to drag on for the rest of the year. The drop-back in energy prices will provide some relief for households and companies but will be partly offset by... 21st June 2023 · 32 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of policy shifts in Turkey and Nigeria Governments in Turkey and Nigeria have started to turn away from unorthodox economic policies in recent weeks, and in both cases currencies have been allowed to move closer to fair value. The key... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jun 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 20th June 2023 · 1 min read
Long Run Update Economic fracturing to continue despite thaw in relations A series of high-level diplomatic meetings this week have raised hopes that strains in US-China relations will start to ease. But the politics of fragmentation was never likely to proceed in a linear... 20th June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack Hi-tech construction boom not reflected in output The investment boom in new hi-tech manufacturing plants is unprecedented, but that boom still hasn’t fed through into higher output or employment in hi-tech manufacturing and investment in IT... 20th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Recent EM export resilience starting to fade EM goods exports held up relatively well at the start of the year but more recent data suggest that resilience is waning. With demand from advanced economies set to soften, the boost from auto exports... 16th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly SAIBOR surge, CBE meeting, Tunisia-EU loan Saudi Arabia’s interbank rates hit their highest level in over two decades this week and, if officials want to prop up credit growth, the Saudi Central Bank may need to step in once more to provide... 15th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (May) & Machinery Orders (Apr.) The trade deficit narrowed for an eighth consecutive month in May as both import prices and volumes continued to fall. “Core” machinery orders rebounded in April, but that still points to a fall in... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (May 2023) & Machinery Orders (Apr. 2023) 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rate cuts will soon come onto the agenda The RBI’s tightening cycle has come to an end and, as the economy comes off the boil and inflation settles at comfortable rates, we think interest rates cuts will materialise in early 2024. Over the... 12th June 2023 · 20 mins read
Africa Economics Update What does Emefiele’s suspension mean for Nigeria? The suspension and potential removal of Godwin Emefiele as Nigeria’s central bank governor raises hopes that there will be a shift away from the current unorthodox and interventionist monetary and... 12th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombian asset rally, encouraging inflation news Hopes that the latest political drama in Colombia will cause President Gustavo Petro's reform agenda to stall have sparked a rally in the country’s financial markets this week. But with the current... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA agriculture slump, rand recovers South Africa’s Q1 GDP figures released this week revealed a big drag from the agricultural sector. Some of the factors that weighed on output (namely the weather) are likely to prove temporary but... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2023) Inflows into EM financial markets have held up well over the past few weeks, with particularly strong inflows into local equities. That said, if we are right that a renewed period of global risk... 9th June 2023 · 2 mins read
