Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s twin deficits cloud an otherwise bright outlook Poland’s economy remains in something of a ‘sweet spot’ for now, but recent upward revisions to the current account shortfall reinforce our long-standing concerns about the country’s twin deficits. In... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US external position not such a big risk to the dollar Although the US is running a budget deficit equal to 9% of GDP and a current account deficit of 3% of GDP, its net external liabilities at 17% of GDP are not actually that large. Last year, they even... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) There were no major changes to the overall growth picture in Q1’s National Accounts. But the economy does not appear to have been making as much progress towards rebalancing as previously appeared to... 29th June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan-China trade: explaining the double deficit According to Ministry of Finance, Japan runs a trade deficit with China. However, when one looks at the trade data from a Chinese standpoint, it appears that China is also running a trade deficit with... 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What's driving the surge in India's exports? The strength of the recent surge in India’s exports is partly a result of the rise in prices of commodities, and particularly metals. As such, we expect export growth to moderate in the coming months... 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Worrying signs from Brazil's current account The fact Brazil is spending its windfall from higher commodity prices – plus more – is good news for the global economy, but carries significant risks for the country itself. In particular, it means... 23rd June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (May) May's trade data suggest that the external sector was an even larger drag on Japan's GDP in Q2 than in Q1, but a closer look shows further signs of recovery from March's earthquake on a month by month... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Balance (Apr.) April’s euro-zone trade data do nothing to alter our view that the external recovery in the region has passed its peak. With domestic demand set to remain weak, we expect GDP growth to slow sharply in... 18th June 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Unravelling the mystery of China’s trade data China’s trade surplus looks much smaller from within the country than it does from abroad. China’s customs data put the goods surplus last year at 3% of GDP. China’s trading partners reported a... 17th June 2011 · 11 mins read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (May) Today’s trade data should go some way to ease fears that China’s economy is heading for a hard landing. Commodity imports remain much weaker than a few months ago but they have recovered slightly. 11th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) April’s trade data show that, despite a massive drop in imports from Japan, Canada's trade deficit actually widened. The drop in imports, concentrated in Japan and other OECD countries, was... 10th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) Pretty much all of the sharp fall in the trade deficit in April will eventually be reversed as the temporary effects caused by disruptions from Japan's earthquake fade. Nonetheless, a modest positive... 10th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Apr.) April’s UK trade figures suggested that the big boost to GDP growth in the first quarter from the external sector is unlikely to be repeated this quarter. 9th June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current account, bank lending (Apr.) & EWS (May) Japan’s current account surplus fell further in April, supporting what we already knew about the effect of the disaster on trade. Survey-based evidence suggests things are turning around with... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Falling exports turn trade balance negative Japan registered her first seasonally-adjusted trade deficit in two years in April. Exports not only failed to increase after the initial disruption caused by the earthquake but also fell further... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final, Apr.) & Trade (Mar.) April’s sharp rise in core inflation is probably not as worrying as it may seem, but it will do nothing to ease the ECB’s inflation concerns, suggesting that the Bank may raise interest rates again in... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
