Emerging Markets Trade Monitor No recovery in sight for EM exports The weakness of the global economy continues to keep export growth subdued across Emerging Markets (EMs). Even in Asia, where exports held up relatively well until very recently, growth in trade has... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Second devaluation would not solve Venezuela's woes Another devaluation of the bolivar would do nothing to solve Venezuela’s shortage of foreign currency. Until or unless the government changes tack and adopts a more market-friendly economic framework... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Time running out for policymakers' hopes of rebalancing It is becoming more clear that sluggish global demand and volatile commodity prices will outlast the willingness and ability of households' to provide debt-fuelled support to economic growth. Without... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Apr.) Increases in German industrial production and exports in April have boosted the chances that the very modest recovery seen in Q1 might gain pace in Q2. 7th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) April's encouraging 0.7% m/m advance in export volumes, following the previous month's much stronger gain, indicates that exports are holding up and that external trade may continue to buffer GDP... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $40.3bn in April, from $37.1bn in March, was largely due to an unwinding of the distortion caused by the Chinese Lunar New Year Holiday. 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting Turkey's external risks While Turkish asset prices have regained some of their lost ground today, the outbreak of protests over the past few days has re-focused attention on the country’s economic vulnerabilities. In... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Growing risk of balance of payments crisis in Venezuela The Venezuelan economy may already be in recession and we continue to expect GDP to contract by 1% this year. With the authorities running out of hard currency, and oil prices unlikely to rebound over... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q1 13) Swiss GDP data for Q1 confirmed that the economy continued to perform well. But the still high level of the franc does appear to be damaging exports and we suspect that growth will slow significantly... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Is the worst now over for Dubai? Optimism has returned to Dubai’s economy, but its debt problems aren’t fully resolved. Ultimately, we think oil-rich Abu Dhabi will step in to provide emergency financing if needed. But even so, the... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Will Sweden & Norway lose their shine? Over the past five years, Sweden and Norway have performed remarkably well by the standards of the developed world, but their recoveries may be starting to run out of steam. Nonetheless, both... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery now being held back by fiscal tightening The US recovery has, up to now, remained lacklustre, but there are signs that this extended malaise could finally give way to a period of more vigorous growth. We expect GDP growth to accelerate from... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican current account deficit not a concern... yet The fact that the Mexican current account deficit has doubled over the past year is not as alarming as it appears. The deficit remains small and there are no signs of a consumer import binge... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan sticks to its guns The Bank of Japan’s inaction today was no surprise, nor was Governor Kuroda’s relatively sanguine attitude to the jump in JGB yields. However, the April external trade data were disappointing and the... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Current account data not as encouraging as it seems At face value, the ongoing improvement in the euro-zone’s current account position, which has been to a large part down to developments in the peripheral economies, is a sign that the structural... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) & Final CPI (Apr.) While March’s euro-zone trade data are certainly encouraging, we remain sceptical that the sector can single-handedly drag the euro-zone and, in particular, the peripheral economies out of recession. 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
