Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (May 13) May’s falls in German exports and industrial production add to evidence that the recovery in the euro-zone’s largest economy will be very modest. 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly IMF deal no solution to Pakistan's woes Pakistan has reached an initial agreement with the IMF for a US$5.3bn loan. The deal should avert a balance of payments crisis but, as this Weekly explains, the conditions attached to the loan will... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Exports and business investment lacking punch The Bank of Canada has set its economic growth hopes on a revival in exports and business investment. Unfortunately, exports and business investment appear to have lost much needed momentum in the... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy decelerates in second quarter After being propelled by a rebound in energy exports earlier this year, economic growth appears to have decelerated heading into the second quarter. Moderate export growth, cautious business... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Latin America’s hidden vulnerabilities The shift towards tighter monetary policy in the developed world combined with the drop in most commodity prices that we forecast over the next year or so threatens to expose key vulnerabilities in... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (May) & ADP Survey (Jun.) The sharp widening in the international trade deficit in May suggests that second-quarter annualised GDP growth may be even weaker than the 1.5% we have been expecting. At the same time, the... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update CEDIN won’t solve Argentina’s balance of payments issues Argentina’s new certificate of deposit (CEDIN) is yet another stopgap measure aimed at alleviating a growing shortage of dollars. Without deeper reforms to economic policy, Argentina’s slow-burning... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jun.) The EC consumer and business survey for June made pretty encouraging reading, but it remains too soon to conclude that the euro-zone is on the cusp of an economic recovery. 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) The latest GDP revisions show that the UK has further to go in terms of regaining pre-crisis levels of output than previously thought. And although the breakdown of Q1 GDP now looks a bit more... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Global trade still sluggish The latest data show that world trade growth was pretty weak in both April and May. Forward-looking indicators give a mixed picture, but overall there is little reason to expect trade volumes to pick... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor QE tapering unlikely to trigger an EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What does Abenomics mean for the rest of Asia? Hopes that the policies of Prime Minister Abe’s new government will transform the outlook for Japan’s economy have lifted sentiment in the country. This Weekly takes a look at the implications of... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Surge in exports not quite as good as it looks The double-digit rise in Japan’s export revenues in May is clearly welcome and should be reflected in higher summer bonuses. However, the import bill is also surging and export volumes remain subdued... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: current account data provide respite for the rand South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed slightly in Q1, helping to ease some of the near-term pressure on the rand. But the fact that the deficit is being funded in large part by short-term... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What the Dutch current account says about the euro-zone As the euro-zone periphery struggles to pay off its external debt, core countries like the Netherlands are still running record current account surpluses. But the Netherlands seems unlikely to reduce... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Competitiveness concerns are in Latin America, not China Despite having experienced relatively rapid wage growth in recent years, there is little evidence that China has suffered a significant loss of export competitiveness. Instead, the EM region that has... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
