UK Data Response Nat. Accounts, Bal. of Pay. (Q4) & H'hold borr. (Feb.) Today’s UK data suggested that there is still little evidence of a significant rebalancing in the economy. Indeed, we remain sceptical that the economy is now firmly back on the path to strong health... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish data spat underlines growing concern over twin deficits The recent spat over an apparent ‘black hole’ in the Polish/German trade balance ignores the fact that inconsistencies between bilateral trade balances are fairly common. But the large ‘net errors and... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much should we worry about global supply chains? Since the earthquake struck on 11 th March, there have been many warnings that massive economic disruption in Japan will be transmitted equally around the world through global supply chains . In our... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy fragile even before disaster struck Recent economic data releases have of course been overtaken by the tragedy of the earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan on 11 th March. This edition of our monthly chart book has therefore turned out... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade makes strong start to 2011 The latest data show that world trade grew strongly in January and that emerging markets continue to outperform advanced economies in this respect. This is consistent with the evidence from purchasing... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response PPI, Housing Starts (Feb.) & Current Account (Q4) The surge in PPI inflation won't sway the Fed. It has already said that it expects the commodity-related upturn will be "transitory". With core PPI inflation still low and the economic recovery... 16th March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Jan.) January's merchandise trade data was heavily influenced by activity in the auto sector. Mixed export figures and stronger imports (revisions included) suggest that the first-quarter contribution from... 10th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The increase in the monthly trade deficit to a five-month high of $46.3bn in January, from 40.3bn, owed very little to the rising cost of imported oil. Instead, it was mainly due to the strength of... 10th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Feb.) China’s unexpected trade deficit in February reflects both distortions around Chinese New Year and the impact high commodity prices are having on China’s import bill. Leading indicators of export... 10th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Jan.) Temporary factors drove at least part of the improvement in the UK’s trade position in January. As with the rest of the economy, reading the underlying trend at the moment is fairly tricky... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jan.) Unexpected weakness in exports and a pick-up in imports resulted in a rare trade deficit (before seasonal adjustment) in January. The consensus view that GDP will quickly rebound from the fall in the... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery cannot rely on exports alone Export-oriented manufacturing now appears to be picking up again after the double-dip in the second half of 2010. However, this is not enough on its own to justify a much more optimistic assessment of... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Jan.) The doubling of import and export growth between December and January seems to reflect not just the usual volatility around Chinese New Year but also confidence among manufacturers about the prospects... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) December's trade data confirm that net exports made a very strong contribution to GDP growth in Q4. We estimate that GDP growth accelerated to 3.5% annualised in the final three months of last year... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The prospect of a rebound in imports at the start of this year, most probably linked to the recent strength of consumption, suggests that the external sector is unlikely to provide as large a boost to... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices don't explain the rise in Turkey's external deficit Turkey reported another large shortfall on its current account in December, which pushed the deficit for last year as a whole to 6.4% of GDP. Rising oil prices partly explain the increase in the... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
