UK Data Response UK Trade (Dec.) The deterioration in the UK’s trade position in December primarily reflects temporary factors such as the snow. However, the underlying trend is still pretty dismal. 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update US-China trade tensions remain a threat The US Treasury has again chosen not to label China a currency manipulator. With US economic prospects looking brighter, the immediate risk of a flare up in tensions over China’s trade and currency... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Dec.) Exports ended 2010 strongly but they still fell in the final quarter and net trade is likely to be another negative for Q4 GDP. 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s imbalances getting wider China’s dual imbalances – its trade surplus and its domestic reliance on investment over consumption – both widened in real terms in 2010. Government fiscal policy made things worse. 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final, Dec.) & Trade (Nov.) December’s final euro-zone CPI inflation figures should calm fears that underlying inflation pressures are building. But with headline CPI inflation likely to rise in early 2011, the ECB’s stance... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) November trade data show that net exports jumped in Q4, due to stronger commodity-related exports and also surprisingly weaker imports. Barring a collapse in December exports, we estimate that net... 13th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) & PPI (Dec.) November's trade figures support our view that annualised GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was at least 4%, better than the consensus forecast of just over 3%. Meanwhile, December's... 13th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Nov.) November’s UK trade figures are not as bad as the widening in the headline deficits suggests. However, it is clear that net trade is giving at best a limited boost to the wider economic recovery. 12th January 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Dec.) A combination of strong domestic demand and high commodity prices is helping to narrow China’s trade surplus but the imbalance with the US remains wide. 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Should we worry about Poland's widening external deficit? Poland’s widening current account deficit is not an immediate cause for concern but, with the quality of financing apparently deteriorating and foreign inflows seemingly being used to finance consumer... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland still faces major challenges The joke about the differences between Iceland and Ireland (one letter and about six months) might provide some encouragement to the latter in the light of recent signs that Iceland is turning the... 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nat. Accounts, Bal. of Payments (Q3) & MPC mins. (Dec.) The raft of UK data released today did little to improve the prospects for the economy next year, highlighting a number of reasons to be concerned over the sustainability of the recovery. 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Nov) The pick-up in the year-on-year growth rate of exports in November may look encouraging but exports are heading for a big quarterly fall. What's more, imports are relatively buoyant, meaning net trade... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) & Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) December’s Ifo survey adds to the evidence that the German economy continues to expand at a rapid rate. For Germany at least, the problems in the periphery are for now being more than offset by the... 17th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea-US trade deal good for both sides The amendments in the Korea-US free trade deal (KORUS) announced earlier this month have caused some protests in Korea, but the risk that the new arrangement is blocked by the National Assembly looks... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would WTO accession mean for Russia? Russia’s accession to the WTO is back in the news and, not for the first time in the past decade, it seems that membership talks might now be concluded at some point within the next twelve months. We... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
