Emerging Markets Economics Update A different take on "currency wars" The “Swan Diagram” – developed by the Australian academic Trevor Swan in the 1950s – offers a fresh perspective on global “currency wars”. It suggests that macro imbalances in those EMs that have been... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Exporters to the rescue? Last week’s data brought some encouraging signs that the euro-zone’s export sector is holding up surprisingly well in the face of the strong euro. Nonetheless, a major export revival appears unlikely... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Overall EM inflows not at danger levels but country risks remain Capital flows to emerging economies are not yet running at a rate that should be a major cause for concern. But estimates of flows in aggregate miss some of the key risks facing individual economies. 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco: bright outlook, twin deficits pose downside risks Morocco is set to be the best performer among the resource-poor Arab economies this year, supported by a comparatively stable political and macroeconomic environment and a rebound in the agricultural... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Global demand, not yen, behind export recovery While the headlines have focussed on the size of Japan’s merchandise trade deficit last month, the more important development in the latest trade data was the strength of exports. We suspect that a... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus The "two-speed" continent The scope for rapid “catch-up” growth, allied with improving levels of governance, point to a relatively upbeat outlook for most of sub-Saharan Africa over the next decade or so. By contrast, a lack... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German exports to outperform despite stronger euro The recent rise in the euro exchange rate is likely to hit Germany and Finland hardest given their strong trade links with non-euro-zone countries. But with exports from the south and periphery set to... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export split reinforces concerns of “currency wars” The continued weakness of exports from commodity producers in the emerging world will add further fuel to the debate over “currency wars”. By contrast, exports from manufacturing-focused economies in... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs right to be wary of rapid capital inflows Behind the rhetoric of global currency wars lies a more fundamental concern that loose monetary policy in the developed economies will lead to rapid and destabilising capital inflows to the emerging... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Current account bottoming out China’s current account surplus edged up last year both in dollar terms and relative to the size of the global economy. We suspect that further increases lie ahead as China’s investment spending slows... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update More rate cuts to come from the Swedish Riksbank The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold reflects concerns that further rate cuts may prompt household debt to rise further with potentially damaging longer-term consequences... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Buoyant domestic demand to support regional growth Buoyant domestic demand should ensure that sub-Saharan Africa remains one of the world’s best performing regions over the next two years, even if the global economy remains weak. We are particularly... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) December's decline in export volumes is a discouraging sign for fourth-quarter GDP growth. Moreover, the widespread drop in imports suggest that the domestic economy slowed quite a bit at the end of... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The unexpected narrowing of the trade deficit to $38.5bn in December, from $48.6bn the month before, pretty much guarantees that the dip in fourth-quarter GDP will be revised to a small gain in the... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Surge in credit causes headache for policymakers Policymakers will pay little attention to last month’s drop in inflation or the acceleration in exports, given the usual volatility around Chinese New Year. But a surge in off-balance-sheet bank... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Dec. 12) December’s industrial production and trade figures added to evidence that the economic picture improved at the tail end of last year. But the fact that the trade deficit for the year as a whole... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
