UK Economics Update Car industry shows exports can grow despite EZ malaise The UK car industry’s revival shows that it is possible for parts of the manufacturing sector to recover despite weakening demand from the euro-zone. 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: trade deficit keeps pressure on the rand South Africa recorded its first ever December trade deficit in 2012, adding to concerns over its deteriorating current account position. This is likely to ensure that the rand remains weak over the... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can exporters shrug off the euro's rise? The euro’s appreciation over recent months may not necessarily prove disastrous for exporters. But with domestic demand likely to continue to contract, the strong currency reduces the chances of the... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Record trade deficit only partly due to yen strength Japan’s record trade deficit in 2012 mainly reflected the fragility of the global economic recovery and a persistently high bill for energy imports, with currency strength playing a secondary role... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update A brighter outlook for exporters Thanks to the recent pick up in overseas activity and the fall in the dollar, the outlook for US exporters has brightened. But without a major turnaround in economic activity in the euro-zone, export... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery continues, but remains fragile The latest data show further strengthening in emerging market exports towards the end of 2012. However, the pace of export growth remains weak by historic standards. 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China's share of global FDI rising, not falling We are sceptical that published FDI data tell us much about China’s economic outlook. For what it’s worth though – and contrary to the headlines – today’s figures suggest the China is increasing its... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Balance (Nov.) & German GDP (2012) The latest euro-zone trade data and the 2012 German GDP figures do nothing to alter the view that the euro-zone economy ended the year on a low note. 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect of Asia's exports this year We expect growth in the developed world to be sluggish in 2013, which suggests that Asia’s exports are unlikely to be strong. But the downside will be mitigated by Asia’s exports increasingly going to... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov. 12) November's paltry 0.1% m/m gain in export volumes is a discouraging sign for fourth-quarter GDP growth. Overall, the data suggest that the risks to our 1.5% annualised fourth-quarter GDP growth lie... 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov. 12) The unexpected widening in the trade deficit to a seven-month high of $48.7bn in November, from $42.1bn, is not good news for fourth-quarter GDP growth. It looks like GDP growth was between 1.0% and 1... 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stalling credit growth points to limited economic rebound There were signs of strengthening developed world demand in China’s latest export data. Stronger growth in China is being reflected in rising imports. But with credit growth levelling off, a strong... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Nov.) Following Friday’s disappointing results from the CIPS/Markit report on services, November’s trade data provided another reminder that the economy is likely to have contracted in the last quarter of... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Further weakness ahead for Kenyan shilling The Kenyan shilling slipped to a seven-month low against the US$ this morning and we think that growing domestic political risk in the run-up to elections in March, coupled with a large current... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update An alternative scenario for Turkey Turkey’s hefty external financing requirement makes it one of the most exposed economies in the emerging world to a fresh global shock, the most likely of which is a renewed escalation of the euro... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts (Q3) & Public Finances (Nov.) GDP is still estimated to have risen strongly in Q3, but we already have plenty of evidence to suggest that the economy may have contracted in the fourth quarter. Indeed, the UK could already be in a... 21st December 2012 · 1 min read
