Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) While a restart in crude oil pipeline activity helped lift energy exports to the US, today's news was really about the surprise jump in non-oil exports to countries further abroad. Indeed, with the... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The sharp decline in the international trade deficit to a nine-month low of $38.7bn in October, from $44.6bn, suggests that our 2.5% forecast for annualised fourth-quarter GDP growth will need to be... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong credit growth stokes expectations of tightening Today’s data showing continued rapid lending and very strong import growth will do nothing to calm market concerns that monetary policy in China is falling behind the curve. A rate hike seems imminent... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Oct.) October’s UK trade figures add to other recent evidence suggesting that the external sector is finally playing a role in the economic recovery. That said, given the boost from the lower pound, we... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Oct.) Germany’s impressive industrial recovery continues to support growth in its own economy and in the euro-zone as a whole. But the favourable effects on the region’s peripheral economies are likely to... 8th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Should we worry about India's widening external deficit? The current account shortfall in India has climbed quickly to the equivalent of almost 4% of GDP while the composition of foreign financing has deteriorated. Nevertheless, we judge that this should... 6th December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The beginning of the end for global imbalances? One of the biggest risks facing the world economy is a lurch towards protectionism, culminating in a trade war between the US and China that would threaten to spill over to other countries. We expect... 6th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Can stockbuilding keep the recovery going? With the fiscal squeeze set to kick in soon and the outlook for demand in the UK’s main export markets looking weak, one remaining hope is that stockbuilding could support the recovery next year. In... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Euro-zone crisis threatens UK export prospects Last week’s bailout for Ireland did little to ease concerns about the troubled euro-zone periphery. At least the UK banking sector’s exposure to the so-called “PIIGS” – Portugal, Ireland, Italy... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Nov.) November’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggested that demand on the high street is rising at a rapid rate, perhaps reflecting early signs of a boost to spending ahead of the VAT rise on 1st January... 25th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Oct) Japan’s exports are weakening due both to the strength of the yen, which has already caused the local currency value of overseas sales to fall outright for most of the year, and more recently to a... 25th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) September's US international trade figures may give Chinese officials travelling to Seoul for tomorrow's G20 summit something to cling to. But the key point is that the US bilateral trade deficit with... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September trade data indicate that net exports were a significant drag on thirdquarter real economic growth and leading indicators point to more of the same in the near future. Indeed, with prospects... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade, Property (Oct.) China’s trade surplus has continued to widen, despite a recent run of strength in imports. The stage is set for a tense G20 summit. 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can exports to Asia sustain the German recovery? With the resilience of German export growth partly reflecting persistently strong demand from Emerging Asia, some have argued that Germany might continue to grow rapidly as demand elsewhere in the... 9th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Industrial Production & Trade (Sep.) The UK industrial recovery, while still fairly healthy, seems to have lost a bit of pace. And the continued dismal net trade performance continues to cast a cloud over the outlook for the sector. 9th November 2010 · 1 min read
