Emerging Markets Economics Update China fears resurface The past few days have seen renewed fears of a hard landing in China ripple through EM financial markets. These fears are nothing new and have in fact resurfaced at a time when EM export growth to... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India on cusp of export rebound With India’s domestic demand held back by tight monetary policy, export demand is likely to play a pivotal role in any economic recovery this year. Recent export data have been disappointing. But a... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Ukraine crisis clouds outlook, but Central Europe recovering The crisis in Ukraine has unsettled the markets, but the economic fallout should be contained to the two countries directly involved – Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine is by far the more fragile of the two... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fall in S. Africa’s current account deficit not as good as it seems South Africa’s current account deficit fell to close to a two-year low in the final quarter of last year. But while on paper this appears to be good news, a deeper look reveals that it was driven... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will onshoring boost the recovery? There are some signs that the benefits of offshoring may be diminishing. Indeed, a reverse process of ‘onshoring’ could already be in train. But onshoring seems likely to be confined to the... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Manufacturers outperforming Export growth was more or less flat at an EM-wide level in January, but there’s a growing divergence at a country level, with highly-open manufacturing economies in Central Europe and East Asia... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Economy will bounce back from weather disruption The unusually severe winter has been playing havoc with the incoming economic data but, once the weather returns to seasonal norms, we expect the US economy to perform strongly this year and in 2015... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Headline shrink in exports is misleading Yesterday's inflation data point to subdued price pressures. Meanwhile, despite the seasonal volatility in the latest trade data, foreign demand and exports remain healthy. 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Revised) & Current Account (Jan) Despite a small downward revision in the second estimate, last quarter's GDP figures were still not as bad as the headlines imply. 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) & Int. Trade (Jan.) The fact that payroll employment rebounded in February despite the unusually bad weather pretty much guarantees that the Fed will taper its asset purchases further at the mid-March policy meeting. 7th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) & Int. Trade (Jan.) The 7,000 decline in employment in February specifically is not a major concern since the unusually severe winter may have played a role. Nevertheless, the broader picture is that employment has been... 7th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Losing some shine Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) grew at its second slowest pace since 2000 last year and, though we expect a modest acceleration this year, growth is likely to remain below the rates seen over the past... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: Creaking current account points to default One year after the death of Hugo Chavez, the former Venezuelan President’s legacy of fiscal largesse and rampant inflation has left the economy on the brink of a balance of payments crisis. With... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Still on course for steady recovery A combination of severe winter weather in the US, New Year celebrations in China and a planned tax hike in Japan are making it more difficult than usual to assess the strength of the world economy... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay squeeze continuing to ease The squeeze on real earnings is continuing to ease, increasing the chances that 2014 is the first year that real pay rises since the financial crisis. Granted, the headline (three month average of the... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much could financial sanctions on Russia hurt the West? If the crisis in Ukraine escalates further, the West seems more likely to impose limited financial sanctions against Russia than to target trade in goods, especially energy. Some Russian officials... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
