Japan Chart Pack The calm before the storm Recent economic data have mostly been positive, with industrial production and retail sales climbing to multi-year highs, and corporate profitability exceptionally strong. However, investors are... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Export recovery to support growth in Asia GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2013 showed that regional growth was unchanged from Q3. Improving prospects for exports bode well for the outlook, but domestic demand needs to cool in some... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Booming car industry could drive Morocco’s economy Morocco’s exports have, so far, seen little benefit from the recovery in the country’s key trading partners in the euro-zone. But the headline trade figures mask some encouraging developments. In... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Stalling talks set back hopes for TPP as catalyst for reform Slow progress in the talks aimed at setting up the Trans-Pacific Partnership has set back hopes that the trade deal could be a catalyst for structural reform in Japan. Japan’s high tariffs on many... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade finished 2013 on a downbeat note The volume of world exports fell by 0.4% m/m in December according to data published on Friday by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. This follows zero growth in November and... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can the recovery withstand the stronger pound? As things stand, sterling’s recent appreciation should not take too much of the wind out of the recovery’s sails. Exporters have already shown some willingness to accept tighter margins in order to... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India and Indonesia – not so fragile? After coming through the latest bout of market turmoil with surprising resilience, it could be time for Indonesia and India to hand in their membership of the so-called ”Fragile Five”. Importantly... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Jan 14) January’s trade data indicate that the drag on Japan’s economy from net exports persisted at the start of the new year. With domestic demand surging ahead of the consumption tax hike, the monthly... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Morocco and Tunisia yet to benefit from euro-zone recovery In spite of their strong trade and financial ties to the euro-zone, Morocco and Tunisia have, so far at least, seen little benefit from the recovery there. Admittedly, inflows of foreign direct... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s wasted decade Concerns about widening current account deficits have been a key factor driving the recent turbulence in financial markets in Latin America. But while the deterioration in the current account... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s auto industry highlights weakness of domestic demand Domestic demand in India remains lacklustre, overshadowing the encouraging performance of exports. Trends in the auto industry provide a case in point, as healthy passenger vehicle exports have not... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Current account deficits narrow, Turkey an outlier Turkey’s current account deficit widened sharply at the end of last year, but the recent tightening of monetary policy means it could now start to narrow substantially. Elsewhere in the region... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rates hikes in Sweden remain a distant prospect The Swedish Riksbank reiterated at its meeting today that it does not expect to raise interest rates until early next year. But we think that the expected start date of its tightening cycle will... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports picking up, but recovery uneven Surprisingly strong export growth from China last month has raised hopes of a broader recovery in EM exports. However, the country level data suggest that export performances are highly uneven, with... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Export sector to drive Malaysia’s growth The acceleration in Malaysia’s economy in the final quarter of 2013 reinforces our view that the central bank is likely to tighten monetary policy sooner rather than later. While policy tightening... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jan.) China's exports did far better than expected in January. Over-invoicing as a way to evade capital controls is being touted as one explanation but we can't find much evidence of that – indeed, if... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
