Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s fiscal risks, Mexico’s China tariffs The Colombian senate’s rejection of President Petro's tax bill adds to our concerns that the country's already-fragile public finances are likely to deteriorate further ahead of next year’s election... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Sep) The trade deficit narrowed markedly to $52.8bn in September, from $59.3bn, as exports increased by 3.0% m/m, easily outpacing a 0.6% m/m gain in imports. It now appears that third-quarter GDP growth... 11th December 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Does Egypt need the IMF anyway? Oman gets an upgrade Egypt’s IMF review has coincided with a fresh impetus to jumpstart the lagging privatisation programme. But compared to just a couple of years ago, Egypt’s improving balance of payments position and... 11th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Hopes for strong recovery will be disappointed Economic growth will remain subdued over the next two years as the largest economies struggle and the smaller ones outperform. Past ECB interest rate cuts will do little to boost activity because... 10th December 2025 · 28 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Dec. ’25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with our key calls and forecasts to reflect the latest regional developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest... 9th December 2025 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Economy to cool, but outperformance to continue After a very strong 2025, economic growth in India is likely to slow in 2026 and 2027 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if they don’t, India will remain a... 9th December 2025 · 17 mins read
China Economics Update Trump eases the hardware bottlenecks on Chinese AI China’s leadership has spurned Nvidia’s knee-capped H20 chips. But it may be willing to let its firms buy the more powerful H200 chips that President Trump is now offering. This would allow China to... 9th December 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Nov. 2025) The tariff cuts agreed under the US-China trade truce didn’t help to lift shipments to the US last month, but overall export growth rebounded nonetheless. We think China’s exports will remain... 8th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA data rush gives reason to be (somewhat) upbeat The raft of economic data released in South Africa over the past week suggests that the economy will continue to expand at a solid (albeit unspectacular) pace over the course of 2026-27. Will the AI... 5th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Electoral forks in the road Latin America’s GDP growth is likely to slow a little in 2026 and, with inflation softening, monetary easing is likely to continue. The scale of rate cuts will vary across countries, with a large... 4th December 2025 · 23 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Strengthening growth and shifting alignments The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest pace of GDP growth (outside the post-pandemic recovery) since 2011 next year. Continued oil output hikes and the switch on of Qatar’s... 4th December 2025 · 22 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade defying tariff headwinds World trade grew relatively strongly in Q3 and looks to have maintained this momentum at the start of Q4. Despite signs of weakness in some Asian economies’ exports in October, the region should... 3rd December 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Taiwan’s economy to keep flying in 2026 Taiwan is on course to record GDP growth of over 7% this year and our forecast for the economy to expand by another 5% next year lies well above the consensus. Rapid growth in exports of AI-related... 2nd December 2025 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update Six non-consensus calls for China for 2026 Almost everyone expects real economic growth in China to slow next year. But most forecasters think the picture will brighten in nominal terms thanks to a rebound in inflation and a bottoming out of... 1st December 2025 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (November) The November PMI readings for most countries in Asia remained consistent with soft manufacturing activity. However, the PMIs haven’t been a great guide to the hard activity data for some economies... 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
