Global Trade Monitor World trade growth picks up The volume of world trade rose in October and surveys suggest that it may have accelerated further since then. But the recovery in trade volumes continues to lag behind the pick-up in economic... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nat. Acc., Bal. of Pay. (Q3) & Public Finances (Nov.) While the national accounts showed that the economic recovery has been stronger than previously thought this year, they also provided a few reasons to doubt that it will be able to maintain its recent... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Nov.) The weak yen is largely to blame for the recent widening of the trade deficit. As domestic demand accelerates ahead of the consumption tax hike, the deficit may well widen further in the near-term... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Retail sales growth accelerating The recent pick-up in the growth rate of underlying retail sales suggests that we are finally seeing a strengthening in domestic demand. It may well be sustained too. Coming out of the recession, the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Current Account (Q3) We’re not convinced that the low rate of inflation in November will prevent the Fed from announcing tomorrow that it will begin to taper its asset purchases, although the decision remains finely... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) The latest euro-zone trade data highlight that the external sector remains too weak to singlehandedly power an economic recovery. 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor WTO agreement unlikely to be a game changer The EM export recovery continued in October, led mainly by net commodity importers. Various indiciators point to gradually improving export conditions, suggesting further gains in the months ahead... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Oct.) October’s figures on industrial production and trade offered some good news for the Government’s oft-proclaimed ambition for an economy more biased towards manufacturing. But, on the external side... 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update "Historic" WTO agreement is not such a big deal The deal signed in Bali this weekend was reached only after the bulk of the Doha trade agenda was dropped from the negotiations. We doubt that it will make much difference to world trade volumes and... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Oct.) October’s German industrial production data suggested that the country’s main growth engine has not only stalled, but gone into reverse. 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weaker Canadian dollar no panacea for economic blues The Bank of Canada's increasingly dovish stance explains only a small part of the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar. We think it has more to do with the pullback in commodity prices... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Economic activity picks up further Judging by the latest business surveys, activity in advanced economies has strengthened further. The global manufacturing PMI is now consistent on past form with world GDP growth of as much as 4%... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nelson Mandela’s economic legacy Nelson Mandela’s role in the political development of South Africa is unquestionable, but significant economic progress was also made under his leadership. However, this is now in danger of being... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weak growth & strong euro keep pressure on ECB Having slowed almost to a halt in Q3, early indications suggest that the euro-zone’s economic recovery is unlikely to have regained much momentum – if any – in the final quarter of the year. Meanwhile... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Capital outflows from Nigeria could become a risk A sizeable current account surplus means that capital outflows from Nigeria are not a cause for concern at the moment. However, a sustained fall in oil prices, as well as the appointment of a more... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation easing despite stronger recovery CPI inflation fell sharply from 2.7% to 2.2% in October and it looks likely to fall below the 2% target soon. Past falls in global agricultural commodity prices suggest that food price inflation will... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
