Africa Chart Pack Effects of China’s slowdown to vary across the region Concerns over the impact on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) of a further slowdown in China have resurfaced over the past couple of weeks. While we do not expect China to experience a hard landing, we do... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia's consumer sector is picking up After enduring a slump for much of 2013, retail sales in Emerging Asia (ex. China) appear to have turned a corner. Growth has picked up strongly across most countries in the region in recent months... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: SICAD2 is another false dawn The Venezuelan government’s introduction of a new foreign exchange mechanism has been well received by the markets, but with no real efforts to significantly increase the supply of foreign currency we... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Sluggish start to 2014 The volume of world exports rose by 0.6% m/m in January according to data published today by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. This follows a small fall in December and means... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external position still not sustainable An influx of financing from the Gulf since last summer has eased strains in Egypt’s balance of payments and brought the country back from the brink of a crisis. Nonetheless, this situation isn’t... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weaker domestic demand driving fragile five’s external positions At an aggregate level, the current account deficit of the “fragile five” (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey) showed a welcome improvement towards the end of last year. But progress has... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Hand of People’s Bank seen in currency fall A rare trade deficit in February relieved some of the upward pressure on therenminbi, but the latest data suggest that the People’s Bank (PBOC) additionally purchased around $25bn of foreign exchange... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Regional vulnerabilities rising, but differentiation is needed Clouds have gathered over the outlook for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the past few months due to growing concerns over widening twin budget and current account deficits and the effects of a slowdown... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Feb.) The sharp fall in the trade deficit in February is welcome, and the shortfall may narrow slightly further in coming months. 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Mar.) & Euro-zone Trade (Jan.) March’s ZEW survey showed that recent concerns over the international environment have had a negative effect on sentiment amongst German investors. But current conditions in the economy remain buoyant... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s falling gas exports underline need for reform A combination of stagnant production and rapidly increasing domestic consumption means that Egypt is set to become a net importer of natural gas in the near future. Support from the Gulf should help... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian outflows could total $70bn in Q1 We estimate that net private sector outflows of capital from Russia have totalled $50bn since the start of the year – equivalent to 2.5% of GDP. What’s more, if the current pace of capital flight... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Idle industrial capacity likely to grow further The fall in manufacturing capacity utilisation over the past year casts further doubt over the Bank of Canada's expectation that the external sector can take over from households in driving economic... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Industrial malaise could soon start to ease Although January’s euro-zone industrial figures made disappointing reading, the recent weakness of the sector partly reflects a plunge in energy production. Encouragingly, orders data paint a more... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Jan.) The latest trade figures show that the economic recovery is still struggling to broaden out to include exports. This looks likely to remain the case so long as the euro-zone’s economic recovery... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Are China’s exporters struggling to compete? The recent slide of the renminbi and February’s weak exports have been linked by some to a supposed loss of competitiveness in China’s export sector. In fact, despite rapid wage growth and trend... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
