Commodities Update China’s commodity imports flattered by temporary factors China’s imports of commodities recovered some ground in September after a poor August, aided by a seasonal pick-up in demand and restocking. However, there is little to suggest that this marks the... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imports point to continued weakness at end-Q3 The September import data suggest China’s economy was still weak at the end of Q3. By contrast, last month’s exports were unexpectedly strong, as they were for both Korea and Taiwan, with demand from... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling’s appreciation another positive for inflation outlook Tomorrow’s inflation figures could show CPI inflation falling below its target for the first time since November 2009. And we still see scope for inflation to fall further over the next year or two... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug.) August trade figures were disappointing. Export volumes were largely unchanged and there were downward revisions to export growth in previous months. Overall, we calculate that net exports likely... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug. 12) The rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $44.2bn in August, from $42.5bn, was due to the combination of a drop in exports and an increase in the value of petroleum-related imports. 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Emerging market exporters face more tough times ahead Emerging market exports have been hit by a broad slowdown in global demand this year, with the last few months proving especially weak. Given the bleak outlook for the global economy, a meaningful... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Tokyo gatherings unlikely to amount to much Finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 meet tomorrow in Tokyo ahead of the annual gathering of the IMF and the World Bank there, which concludes on Sunday. Although these meetings can very... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Aug.) August’s weak industrial production and trade figures indicated that the underlying trend in GDP is flat at best and therefore undermined hopes that the “green shoots” of economic recovery are... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Aug.) August’s German industrial production and trade figures suggest that, unlike most of the rest of the euro-zone, the economy is probably avoiding a recession for now. 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Could Greece take advantage of a return to the drachma? The view of some commentators that a return to the drachma would be of little benefit to Greece because “it does not export much” is wide of the mark. Not only would an exit and devaluation improve... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rand still has further to fall The South African rand has sold-off sharply in the past few days, but we think a combination of domestic political unrest, a challenging external environment, and a widening current account deficit... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How important is non-China Asia to Japan? Japan’s economic relationship with China is important, but so is Japan’s relationship with other countries in Asia. These other economies account for a greater share of trade and outward foreign... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Russia’s dwindling current account surplus The forecast by the Central Bank of Russia that the economy will run a current account deficit by 2015 is significant insofar as it represents the first official acknowledgment of something we’ve been... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are global imbalances a thing of the past? The world’s current account imbalances have narrowed since 2008 as a result of the downturn in the US and the surge in investment in China. However, we think they will widen again in the medium term... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we be worried about the current account deficit? While last week brought some tentatively positive signs regarding bank lending, the news that the UK ran a record current account deficit in Q2, thanks to an investment income deficit, was less... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's external deficit remains a concern India‘s current account deficit fell in the second quarter of the year, but only slightly. The deficit remains high and India is still dependent on fragile portfolio investment. In these circumstances... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
