China Data Response FX reserves (Mar.) China’s foreign exchange reserves were broadly stable last month, suggesting that the recent easing of capital outflows has allowed the People’s Bank to step back from FX intervention. 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update North Korea to distract from trade at Trump-Xi Summit We expect Donald Trump to tone down his criticism of China’s mercantilist policies when he meets Xi Jinping later today in order to focus on dealing with the more pressing threat from North Korea. If... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Feb.) The 2.5% m/m drop in export volumes in February was widespread and suggests that the economy is still struggling with competitiveness challenges. This just goes to show that the Bank of Canada is... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The trade deficit narrowed sharply in February to $43.6bn, from $48.2bn in January, as the surge in imports from China ahead of the Lunar New Year Holiday was reversed. 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The rebound in the trade surplus is mainly due to the reversal of the distortion caused by Chinese New Year that suppressed the surplus in January. But with commodity prices having started to edge... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Mar.) The slight fall in the manufacturing PMI in March suggests that the sector saw a modest slowdown in the first quarter. But the bigger picture is that the sector is still performing well by recent... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US appears to soften stance on NAFTA, but long road ahead A leaked copy of a notification letter from the Trump administration to Congress suggests that its plans for renegotiating NAFTA are more consistent with the idea of creating a “North American... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4) The latest Quarterly National Accounts highlighted that the economy as a whole expanded at a solid pace at the end of last year, although at first glance it raises some questions about the... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The economic consequences of Cyclone Debbie The recent damage caused by Cyclone Debbie is clearly devastating for those households and businesses in Queensland that have been most affected. And it will leave a fairly large dent in Queensland’s... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exports should rebound from recent slump After a long period of disappointment, the recent pick-up in global manufacturing activity points to a rebound in non-commodity export growth in the coming months. We think it would take a marked... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economic growth to slow again Economic growth has picked up recently, but we aren’t convinced the economy has turned the corner, particularly not when that growth is still so unbalanced. Non-commodity exports are lagging and... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Retail Sales, Trade and PPI (Feb.) While today’s data suggests that Swedish growth may have slowed in Q1, it still looks set to be strong. And as PPI inflation remains high, inflationary pressures appear to be rising and we expect the... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor The world trade recovery continues in Q1 The latest data suggest that the recovery in world trade which appeared to take hold at the end of last year has continued in 2017. What’s more, the immediate outlook seems reasonably bright, with... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Have we underestimated sterling’s inflation impact? CPI inflation surprised on the upside again last week, largely due to a few components that tend to be more responsive to exchange rate movements. This begs the question of whether we (and many others... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update BoP data suggest low external vulnerabilities While there was a slight widening in India’s current account deficit in Q4, the more important point is that the external shortfall remains small. Given also that FDI inflows remain strong, the... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia won’t stay ahead for long The rebound in GDP growth in Australia in the fourth quarter and the easing in New Zealand appear to imply that the neighbouring nations are experiencing a change of fortunes. But we doubt this is a... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
