US Chart Pack Rebound in inflation could be the big story in 2018 The stronger 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices in December provided clearer evidence that the forces weighing on core inflation last year are now firmly in reverse. Admittedly, core CPI inflation... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Sustained upturn need not prompt ECB rate hikes The euro-zone’s impressive upturn looks set to continue apace as reduced political uncertainty, high levels of business confidence, and continued strong policy support allow investment to take off... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Signs of EM trade softening heading into 2018 Early data for December suggest that EM export growth finished 2017 on a slightly softer footing and support our view that trade growth will slow this year. 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Time to worry about the trade deficit? India’s trade deficit widened to a three-year high in December, but we don’t think this is cause for major concern just yet. Exports should rebound following disruptions related to the GST, while... 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Nov.) The widening of the euro-zone’s goods trade surplus in November suggests that the euro’s strength is doing little to hurt the region’s exports. With the global economy in good health and world trade... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Majority don’t support a second referendum The possibility of a second referendum was again raised this week, but the chances of another vote happening appear slim. Meanwhile, we still expect a transitional deal to be agreed by March. But the... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What would happen if the US withdrew from NAFTA? The rise in trade tensions ahead of the sixth round of NAFTA trade talks scheduled to start later this month suggest that those talks could already be doomed. But we still think that there’s a good... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.) Our tracker suggests that EM capital outflows picked up a bit in December, but remained slow over the year as a whole. Portfolio flows into EMs hit a record high last year, and look strong going into... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) Export growth declined slightly last month but remained healthy. In contrast, import growth slowed sharply, raising questions over the state of domestic demand. Divergent prospects for growth in China... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly The export rebound is unsustainable Despite the decent outlook for global growth over the next year, we doubt the recent rebound in Asian export volumes will be sustained. If we are right, then regional growth is likely to slow, with... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revisiting Nafta (again) Concerns over the fate of Nafta have caused more wobbles in Mexican markets over the past day, but the economic implications are less straightforward than much of the commentary suggests. While any... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Nov.) The latest hard data for Q4 supports the view that the UK economy maintained a reasonable amount of momentum, and offers some tentative signs that net trade may have provided a bigger boost to growth. 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy shrugging off euro’s rise At the start of January, the euro reached a three-year high against the US dollar and a three-and-a-half year high in trade-weighted terms. While the euro’s climb over the past year or so may seem... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will Vietnam’s export sector continue to outperform? Exports from Vietnam should continue to grow strongly in the short term, helped by booming foreign direct investment into the manufacturing sector. However, the lack of spillovers from the dynamic... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) & Trade (Nov.) The solid 78,600 increase in employment in December and the drop in the unemployment rate to 5.7%, from 5.9%, suggest that the domestic economy is coping well with recent increases in interest rates... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) & Internat’l Trade (Nov.) The slightly disappointing 148,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December will not prevent the Fed from continuing to normalise interest rates, with the next hike probably coming in March. 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
