Emerging Markets Trade Monitor “Brexit” poses little risk to EM Trade South Africa’s April output figures suggest that, after a disastrous Q1, the economy improved a touch going into Q2. But the country will still struggle to avoid a technical recession. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Apr.) Despite the narrowing in the UK’s trade deficit in April, net trade still doesn’t appear to be providing any support to the economy. But the prospects for trade look brighter further ahead. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports holding up well China’s commodity demand remained strong in May. While arbitrage opportunities and stockbuilding may explain some of the strength, it also looks likely that fiscal and monetary stimulus measures are... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (May) China’s exports remain weak on the back of subdued external demand. But at the same time, recovering commodity prices and relatively resilient domestic demand are driving a recovery in import growth. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should European markets be more worried about Brexit? Iceland’s second consecutive quarterly fall in GDP was down to the volatility of trade. The big picture is that domestic demand growth picked up and the outlook is positive. 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q1) Today’s final estimate of Q1 GDP confirmed that the economy got off to a strong start to the year, driven by household spending. But the economy is unlikely to expand as quickly throughout the rest of... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Set for a slow recovery The downturn in Latin America’s economy should bottom out over the second half of this year and economic growth should return as we move into 2017. The recession in the region’s largest economy –... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Slowdown in underlying inflation should rattle BoJ Japan’s economy is holding up reasonably well despite the recent strengthening of the yen. Meanwhile, the decision to delay the sales tax hike that had been scheduled for next April has brightened the... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rise in oil prices not all positive for Norway The recent rise in oil prices will provide some short-term support to the Norwegian economy, but the associated strengthening of the krone will hinder the economy’s rebalancing away from oil. We... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) The merchandise trade deficit narrowed by a smaller margin than expected in April, mostly due to a tepid rebound in export volumes. Given the potential for a decline in energy exports in May, it now... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will Vietnam’s exports continue to boom? Exports from Vietnam should continue to grow strongly in the short-term, helped by booming foreign direct investment into the manufacturing sector. However, the lack of spillovers from the dynamic... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Apr.) April’s international trade and retail sales data suggest that the spectacular rise in GDP in the first quarter is unlikely to be sustained in the second. Despite the narrowing in the trade deficit... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Domestic strength can’t keep propping up Emerging Asia Economic growth in Emerging Asia has remained remarkably steady over the past year, even as export demand has stalled. However, policy support and lower oil prices will not continue to prop up... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) The surge in GDP in the first quarter means the RBA won’t be in a rush to cut interest rates again. But growth will slow during the rest of this year and we still think that continued low inflation... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) There is some evidence that India’s economy has picked up speed recently but today’s remarkably strong GDP data are hard to believe. 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Trade surplus positive news ahead of ratings review Today’s trade figures will provide some support for the South African rand. But the currency still faces significant headwinds given political uncertainty and the looming risk of a government credit... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
