Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Nov.) The further widening in the international trade deficit in November suggests that after making a neutral contribution to GDP growth in the third quarter, the external sector was probably a drag on GDP... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy gathered a little momentum in Q4 The latest survey evidence suggests that the economy ended 2017 on a reasonable footing. Indeed, despite a fall-back in both the manufacturing and construction PMI surveys in December, the all-sector... 4th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack State election victories strengthen BJP’s hand The state election victories for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP in both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh ensure that the ruling party remains firmly on track to secure a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Nearing full employment Japan’s economy will expand the most this year since 2013. Yet the unemployment rate hasn’t fallen any further since the start of the year. This isn’t due to a surge in productivity that has reduced... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to narrow further After reaching a three-year high in October, India’s trade deficit narrowed a touch in November. The shortfall is likely to narrow further over the coming months. Exports should continue to rebound... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Nov.) Export volumes continued to grow faster than import volumes last month which suggests that net trade continued to support growth in the current quarter. 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Has inflation peaked? With inflation rising above 3% in November, there are some reasons to think that it has now reached a peak. It remains the case that the primary driver of the rise in inflation has been the slide in... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) & Irish GDP (Q3) The narrowing of the euro-zone’s goods trade surplus in October revealed that the external sector had a poor start to Q4. But with the global economy in good health and world trade growing at a decent... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Strong year for EM exports, but 2018 set to be softer 2017 was the first year since 2014 in which EM exports recorded positive growth. However, two of the key props to this year’s export recovery are likely to weaken over the coming quarters – meaning... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) The narrowing of South Africa’s current account deficit in Q3 (which slipped to 2.3% of GDP) and the weakening of inflation should ease pressure on the South African Reserve Bank to tighten policy. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low There was a slight widening in India’s current account deficit in Q3 over a four-quarter sum, but the bigger picture is that the external shortfall remains small. In addition, FDI inflows remain... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our tracker suggests that capital flows into and out of the EM world were essentially balanced last month. Over 2017 as a whole, outflows will be about US$55bn, just an eighth of the total recorded in... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Oct.) While the flurry of UK activity data was fairly disappointing, the industrial sector still looks on course to provide solid support to growth in Q4. 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (Oct.) The unexpected jump in French industrial production in October was fairly broad-based and shows that the sector made a very healthy start to Q4. Meanwhile, German trade data for the same month were... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Nov.) Chinese trade growth surprised to the upside in November, with strong external demand more than offsetting the drag from base effects. That said, domestic demand may not be quite as strong as the... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Oct.) Australia has managed to notch up 12 consecutive months of an international trade surplus, but only just as the surplus slumped from $1.6bn in September to $0.1bn in October. The pollution controls in... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
