Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The fourth straight drop in the manufacturing PMI in April suggests that the continued strengthening of the yen and the disruptions caused by the Kyushu earthquakes are taking their toll on activity... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pre-election spending splutter mostly a myth The idea that households and businesses postpone their spending ahead of a Federal election is more fallacy than fact. Admittedly, there is some evidence that the uncertainty generated by an election... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade ticks up in February The latest available data show that the volume of world trade recovered in February, fully reversing its decline in January. While the outlook for growth in the volume of world trade is fairly bleak... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Stronger dollars a major threat to outlook The recent rise of the Australian and New Zealand dollars will prevent GDP growth from strengthening this year and will keep core inflation at uncomfortably low levels. This is particularly true in... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Mar.) The slump in export values is weighing on firms’ revenues and may undermine their willingness to invest and lift wages. 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Getting used to lower growth Global growth was sluggish in the first quarter, but it is likely to pick up a bit during the rest of the year. A policy-induced rebound in China and recovery in the prices of key commodities should... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Signs of a rebound in Q1 A cyclical rebound appears to be underway. Admittedly, there is no sign of a turnaround in either the official GDP figures or Q1 industrial production. But evidence elsewhere points to a policy-driven... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government faces uphill task to meet export target The narrowing in India's trade deficit to a six-year low in FY15/16 is welcome news, but this masks the fact that exports slumped by over 15% last year. With progress on the reforms needed to create a... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Some things to keep in mind about Q1 GDP The strength of recent monthly GDP data has prompted some forecasters to revise up their growth forecasts for this year as a whole. But predictions of an acceleration in growth are, to our minds at... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export decline easing off The rate at which EM exports are declining slowed markedly in February. Rising commodity prices and a rebound in China should boost exports later this year. 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Policymakers running out of ammunition The euro-zone’s gradual recovery appears to be slowing as we had warned as boosts from the euro’s depreciation and falling oil prices fade. However, the ECB has hinted at limits to its future policy... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A strong quarter for China’s industrial commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes rose in March, rounding off a strong quarter for import demand. However, local stocks have been building, suggesting that we will need to see a pick-up in activity if... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) China’s trade data for March point to healthy growth in import volumes and add to growing evidence that the extreme gloom of a few weeks ago about the state of the domestic economy was misplaced. 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Outlook for Australian services exports good, not great While exports of services will continue to grow rapidly over the next decade, they won’t boost GDP by anywhere near as much as resources exports have. For that to happen, countries such as China and... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM oil producers unlikely to follow Angola to the IMF Angola last week became the first EM oil producer to turn to the IMF since oil prices started to fall in 2014. In the near-term, we don’t expect any others to follow suit. External risks in EM oil... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
