Asia Economics Malaysia Trade (Oct.) Today’s trade figures suggest that Malaysia’s external sector remains in rude health. Both exports and imports continued to grow at a rapid pace. Looking ahead, although export growth is likely to... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The widening in the trade deficit in October was driven by a large fall in soybean exports, which appears unlikely to be reversed over the next month or two. Together with the continued strength of... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) The rebound in merchandise export volumes in October, following four straight months of declines, is an encouraging start to the fourth quarter. The Bank of Canada will need far more convincing signs... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India gold imports (Oct.) The latest trade data for India and China show that gold imports remained weak in October. We had always thought that demand in India would soften in the second half of the year as a result of the new... 27th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade on track for a strong Q4 The latest CPB data suggest that world trade volumes held on to recent gains in September. Other indicators have been even more upbeat, and the signs are that trade is maintaining momentum in Q4. 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The manufacturing PMI climbed to a fresh high in November and suggests that the expansion accelerated in the final quarter of the year. What’s more, the survey shows that price pressures continue to... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Bank recapitalisation pushes equities to fresh highs The surge in Indian equities since the start of the year has continued over the past month, with the benchmark Sensex stock index hitting an all-time high in early November. The latest leg up has been... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Oct.) Export volumes continue to rise more rapidly than import volumes so net trade should have continued to support GDP growth in the current quarter. 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) After seeing net capital inflows in September for the first time in 2014, we think outflows will have returned last month as Chinese investors acquired foreign assets at a faster pace and inbound... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Prospects for world trade quite good, despite Trump Fears that Donald Trump’s election sounded the death knell for globalisation have so far proven wide of the mark. Admittedly, there are still some threats to the outlook, and there is little chance of... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Will the Nikkei continue to outperform? The Nikkei is near its highest in 25 years, buoyed by a 200% rise in net profits since PM Abe returned to power five years ago. Looking ahead, we expect the yen to weaken to 120 by the end of next... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Sep.) The widening of the euro-zone’s goods trade surplus in September adds to the evidence that net exports boosted GDP in Q3. And despite the appreciation of the euro this year, the outlook for exports is... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit unlikely to widen further India’s trade deficit widened to a three-year high in October, but we don’t think this is cause for major concern. Exports should rebound following disruptions related to the GST, while commodity... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will Japan benefit from the TPP minus the US? Even after the withdrawal of the US, the TPP remains an ambitious free trade agreement that will lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers for Japanese firms in a number of important trading partners and... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Trump still focusing on bilateral deficits EM exports look to have finished Q3 on a strong note, albeit with help from seasonal effects. Otherwise, a year on from Trump’s election, protectionist rhetoric is yet to result in material changes to... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Sep.) The flurry of activity data suggests that the industrial sector is helping to provide some offset to the consumer slowdown. However, net trade probably dragged on GDP growth in Q3. 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
