Emerging Europe Economics Update Retail spending to remain a soft spot in Russia’s recovery The recent slowdown in Russian retail spending appears to be close to bottoming out. But we doubt that retail sales will grow by any more than 2.0-2.5% y/y over the next twelve months. 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Cautious RBA may only hike rates in late-2020 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sounded a little more cautious when it left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% for the 28th month. That supports our view that rates will not rise until late in 2020... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Further signs of EM growth stabilising in Q4 The aggregate EM manufacturing PMI edged up in November, which adds to the evidence that EM GDP growth has steadied in Q4 after a slowdown in Q3. The improvement has been driven by the BRIC economies... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in November primarily reflects the strength of domestic demand and provides some support to our forecast that GDP will expand by 2.7% annualised in the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Industry slowdown has further to run The latest batch of business surveys suggests that the slowdown in global manufacturing continued in November. In particular, there was no sign of a rebound in the euro-zone despite the end of the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Revised saving rate highlights household risks The sharp downward revisions to the saving rate imply that households are even more vulnerable to higher interest rate than we had previously thought. In that environment, the Bank of Canada’s plan to... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The rise in the manufacturing PMI in November suggests that a substantial fall in manufacturing output in Q4 will be avoided. However, the big picture is that the sector is struggling. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The increase in manufacturing PMIs for Switzerland, Sweden and Norway in November offers hope that the weakness of economic activity in Q3 was not the start of a deeper downturn. But since the surveys... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The rebound in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI to 49.5 in November is the latest sign that the economy is now recovering following a very weak performance earlier this year. Even so, we think that... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) November’s PMIs suggest that Central European industrial production growth will weaken markedly in the final months of 2018. Even so, with other sectors holding up well, that’s unlikely to result in a... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The greater-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in November, to 21.6% y/y, increases the chances that the central bank pushes ahead with an interest cut in the coming months. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) India’s manufacturing PMI jumped again in November, defying the drop in the PMI readings across most of Asia. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain fairly bright over the near term. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The latest survey data suggest that conditions in industry remained broadly stable last month. But we still think that growth will slow during the next few quarters, even though the immediate threat... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The November PMIs for Emerging Asia indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors lost further momentum in the middle of Q4. Meanwhile, the weakness in new export orders supports our view that the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) We suspect the decline in house prices in the eight capital cities is going to continue and house prices will go on to eventually fall by at least 12%. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Focus turns to Bank of Canada This week’s media coverage painted far too positive a picture of foreign direct investment in Canada, which remains lower than a year ago and after the recent slump in oil prices is likely to... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
