Global Economics Update Fortunes diverge in advanced economies Preliminary Markit PMIs provide tentative evidence that the euro-zone economy will lag behind advanced-economy peers in Q4, as growth holds up better in the US and Japan. 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Mboweni puts growth ahead of fiscal targets The government’s decision to accept a wider deficit rather than tighten policy to meet previous targets will push up debt levels. But so long as bond yields don’t rise sharply (which we doubt is... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) The unexpectedly sharp decline in the Composite PMI in October left it pointing to the slowest pace of quarterly euro-zone GDP growth for two and a half years. 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Shadow bank concerns come to the fore India’s shadow banking sector has been thrust into the spotlight over the past few weeks, triggered by news that the Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS) Group is likely to miss several... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The pick-up in the manufacturing PMI in October, from 52.5 to 53.1, suggests that the likely slowdown in GDP growth in Q3 was just a blip. 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Higher inflation to prompt Nordic rate rises The latest data suggest that underlying inflation is picking up in Sweden, Norway and Iceland and we expect the central banks in all three countries to respond by tightening monetary policy. In Sweden... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update More tax cuts, less infrastructure spending It comes as no surprise that Chinese officials are responding to slower growth by easing fiscal policy. But an increased focus on tax cuts and the lack of a revival in off-budget borrowing suggests... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM inflation pressures continue to build Price pressures have continued to strengthen in the emerging world. Our aggregate EM inflation measure jumped from 3.8% y/y in August to 4.2% y/y in September, its fastest pace since early 2016. The... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Stronger investment intentions bode well, for now The third-quarter Business Outlook Survey revealed a rebound in firms’ investment intentions, which is consistent with machinery and equipment investment growth remaining close to 10% y/y. Moreover... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A slow and uneven recovery Growth in Latin America as a whole is likely to strengthen over the coming quarters, but with monetary and fiscal policy tightening in most countries, it will be weaker than most expect. We’re... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Past the peak Global growth is likely to ease over the next two years, led by slowdowns in the US and China. Although headline inflation should drop back in many advanced economies next year, core inflation will... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly From pot to Poloz After the legalisation of cannabis this week, next week the spotlight turns to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate announcement. The Bank looks set to raise interest rates for the third time this year... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Other countries unlikely to echo the US fiscal stimulus The apparent success of the US’s recent fiscal stimulus, at least in the short term, begs the question of whether other countries should, or will, follow suit. However, we think that most would... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro’s reform agenda, BCB rates hikes The plans outlined by Brazil’s likely next president, Jair Bolsonaro, to tackle some of the causes of Brazil’s productivity problem should be welcomed. But his apparent waning commitment to fiscal and... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumers will continue to feel the pinch Higher oil prices have weighed on consumer conditions in the emerging world recently, but while the impact of higher energy inflation is set to fade in the months ahead, we still expect consumer... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC restarts FX sales, state media get new buzzword The PBOC has been hiding its efforts to support the renminbi over recent months. But a release this week showed the clear hand of the central bank: the PBOC’s balance sheet for September reveals the... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
