Canada Economics Weekly PMI hints at slowing momentum While the data this week revealed that GDP was better than expected in August, the growth rate nevertheless slowed. Combined with September’s trade data which showed a fall in manufacturing exports... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth to rebound in Q4 Delays to car production appear to have had a big impact on GDP in Q3, particularly in Germany and Italy. But these effects should be temporary, so we expect growth to rebound in Q4. This suggests... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT paves way for cuts, Polish industry stays soft in Q4 The latest comments from Turkey’s central bank suggest that policymakers are considering unwinding some of the recent rate hikes, reinforcing our view that the MPC isn’t serious about tackling the... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Oct.) October’s rise in the headline PMI for UK construction reversed a three-month downward trend, but does not change our view of continued caution about prospects for the rental growth. 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Figures suggest weak recovery in Nigeria & S. Africa Activity data released this week supported our view that economic conditions in Nigeria and South Africa were very weak in recent months. We think official GDP figures due out in late November and... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Sep./Q3) The subdued rise in real retail sales in the third quarter means that consumer spending growth probably slowed. While falling petrol prices should provide some relief to households soon, we think that... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Budget package will boost growth (and rates) The fiscal loosening announced in the Autumn Budget has prompted us to raise our forecasts for GDP growth and interest rates. In our base case, which assumes a Brexit deal is secured, we now expect... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Industry slowdown far from over Markit’s manufacturing PMIs for October were a mixed bag, with steep falls in the euro-zone and UK sitting alongside small increases in other major economies. In aggregate, the surveys add to evidence... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a six-month low of 57.7 in October, from 59.8, leaves it still at a relatively high level by past standards. Nevertheless, it does suggest that the... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC hints rates will rise quicker than markets expect The “Super Thursday” releases from the Bank of England support our view that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise interest rates more quickly than markets expect, if a Brexit deal is struck. 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) The sharper-than-expected 1.8% m/m contraction in Brazilian industrial production in September won’t prevent the economy as a whole from strengthening in Q3. But it reinforces concerns about the scale... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The fall in the manufacturing PMI to its lowest level since immediately after the EU referendum suggests that the sector will drag on growth in Q4 as Brexit uncertainty weighs on investment and export... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI is probably overestimating the weakness of the manufacturing sector, which we think continued to recover in October. Flattering base effects created by the... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The continued weakness of Turkey’s PMI provides further evidence that the economy has fallen into a deep recession. Elsewhere, the drop in the Czech PMI last month suggests that softness in the... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Don’t expect a change in rates for at least three years The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep interest rates unchanged at 1.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 8th November, with recent encouraging economic data making a cut less likely. Even so, we... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) India’s manufacturing PMI jumped in October, bucking the trend across most of Asia. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain fairly bright over the near term. 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
