Latin America Economics Update Election not a reason to expect Mexican growth to slow Mexican economic growth has weakened after all but one presidential election since 1950, and there have been growing suggestions that the recent change of government could cause growth to weaken next... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising in Italy After contracting in Q3, activity surveys suggest that Italy’s economy is on the brink of recession. Indeed, the Composite PMI was unchanged at 49.3 in November, which on past form points to GDP... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.) November’s PMI data suggest that the Gulf’s non-oil sectors have held up well given the backdrop of the fall in oil prices. But we doubt that this resilience will last. Meanwhile, the surveys showed... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Oct.) Household spending isn’t falling off a cliff just yet but we still think that the downturn in the housing market will restrain consumption growth before long. Meanwhile, net trade may turn into a drag... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Heading for a weak Q4 Following the solid rise in GDP in the third quarter, the recent news has been disappointing. The business surveys suggest that output barely increased at all in November. And following a brief period... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Q3 GDP growth acceleration driven by investment Stronger investment drove a pick-up in GDP growth across Central Europe in Q3, despite a big drag from net trade. But investment is likely to lose steam over the coming quarters, which is part of the... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final PMIs (Nov.) November’s final euro-zone PMIs suggested that the weakness of GDP growth in Q3 was more than just a blip. But October’s rise in retail sales provides some comfort and we expect consumer spending... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Nov.) It is not too surprising that we have now reached the point where the Brexit shenanigans are weighing more heavily on activity. But we suspect the Markit/CIPS survey is overstating the slowdown in... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Private Production (Oct.) Sweden’s private sector production data for October suggest that the economy bounced back after Q3’s contraction. This reduces the risk of the Riksbank delaying its first rate hike beyond February. 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (Nov.) Consumer price inflation in the Philippines fell in November, and looks set to decline further over the coming months due to a combination of lower food and oil prices. If inflation falls back as we... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q3) It would be tempting to blame the slowdown in GDP growth in the third quarter on temporary factors. But we believe that the full effects of falling house prices and tighter credit conditions haven’t... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update GDP growth heading toward zero in first quarter The combined effect of Alberta’s forced oil production cuts and the slump in oil prices on activity in the sector are set to push Canadian GDP growth down to around 0.5% annualised in the first... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus China Property Handbook China’s property sector is crucial to the economy’s performance and to China’s demand for many materials. In this updated and expanded Handbook, we discuss the drivers of the property cycle and answer... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) Weaker-than-expected Brazilian industrial growth in October, of 0.2% m/m, provides early evidence that GDP growth in Q4 is likely to be weaker than Q3’s outturn of 0.8% q/q. 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa’s economy escaped recession in Q3, and the rebound was much stronger than we’d expected. But growth will probably soften in Q4 due to weaker agricultural growth and the imposition of... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Retail spending to remain a soft spot in Russia’s recovery The recent slowdown in Russian retail spending appears to be close to bottoming out. But we doubt that retail sales will grow by any more than 2.0-2.5% y/y over the next twelve months. 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
