Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Mar.) March’s decline in the euro-zone’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) adds to the evidence from other surveys that the economy has continued to lose momentum. And there is no sign that either the... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) March’s set of ESIs point to GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe holding up at 4.0% y/y in Q1. But evidence that the weakening external environment is starting to take a bigger toll the region’s... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Running out of steam The Australian and New Zealand economies both appear to be running out of steam with growth slowing sharply in the second half of 2018. And we think the outlook is set to deteriorate further. Annual... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Weak profits strengthen case for benchmark rate cuts A sharp fall in earnings for industrial firms in January and February shows the pressure that weak demand is putting firms’ balance sheets under. We think officials will respond by cutting benchmark... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia’s central bank hints at rate cuts Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today dropped its clearest hint yet that interest rate cuts are on the way after it lowered its growth forecasts for this year and pledged that monetary policy would be... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth slowing in Q1 The slowdown in EM GDP growth over the second half of 2018 worsened at the start of this year. EM GDP growth in Q1 is shaping up to be the weakest since Q4 2016. 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Grim news across the region Figures released over the past month added to concerns that Africa’s largest three economies stumbled in early 2019. There was, admittedly, some good news from Kenya, where judges struck down a cap on... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Italy at risk of perma-recession Over the next ten years, we think that Italy’s economy will fail to grow because productivity growth will remain weak and total employment will fall. As a consequence, the public debt ratio will... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator (Mar.) The decline in the Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in March was not as bad as we had feared given the sharp fall in the euro-zone manufacturing PMI last week. But it is still consistent with... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Will the RBA have to cut interest rates? We believe that GDP growth in Australia will fall well below potential this year as the housing downturn bites. That means that unemployment will soon start to rise again and underlying inflation will... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ will cut rates this year The RBNZ took a surprising dovish turn when it left the official cash rate on hold at 1.75% today, indicating that the next move is likely down. Given that we are more downbeat about the outlook for... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Inverted yield curve another signal of weaker growth Some have warned that the recent inversion of the US yield curve signals that a recession is coming, while others have warned against reading too much into the inversion. Our view is that the answer... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai: solid growth, but debt risks linger Economic growth in Dubai should hold up well at 3.8-4.5% over the next couple of years due to a boost from the 2020 World Expo. Loan restructurings undertaken in 2014 have masked the Emirate’s debt... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s economy likely to slow after general election The Spanish economy looks set to slow slightly as the effect of last year’s fiscal stimulus fades and weak growth elsewhere in the euro-zone takes a toll. That said, it will still probably be one of... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA to cut rates faster and more The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will welcome the continued tightening of the labour market when it leaves rates unchanged at 1.50% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 2nd April. But we’ve become even... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai election result is bad news for the economy Thailand looks set for a period of political and economic uncertainty after the military and the main opposition party claimed victory in yesterday’s general election. The inconclusive result... 25th March 2019 · 1 min read
