Japan Economics Weekly Q3 bright spots fade, better lies ahead The past week’s data cast a shadow over some of the few remaining bright spots in Q3. Next week’s GDP release is very likely to show that Japan’s economy contracted for a second time this year... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional growth slows further, inflation rises GDP data to be released next week are likely to confirm that growth across Emerging Europe continued to weaken in Q3. Meanwhile, figures published this week showed that inflation picked up in most of... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Has a weaker ruble helped Russia’s economy? There’s little evidence so far to suggest that the fall in the ruble this year has boosted Russia’s economy, but we think the positive effects will begin to materialise in 2019. 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: First Estimate (Q3) The GDP figures confirmed that economic growth accelerated in Q3. But it seems unlikely that the economy will be able to keep up this pace with Brexit uncertainty hanging over it. 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Reform boost for Vietnam, regional growth slows The opening up of Vietnam’s economy has gathered pace over the pace couple of months, with the government pressing ahead with a series of reforms which should boost the country’s economic prospects... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Q3 growth hit by temporary drop in car production The slowdown in quarterly euro-zone GDP growth to just 0.2% in Q3 came as a major disappointment, but there are good reasons to expect the economic expansion to regain a little pace in the quarters... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Car emission tests not the key driver of CEE Q3 slowdown The net impact of a new vehicle emissions testing procedure on Q3 GDP growth appears to have been minimal in Poland and the Czech Republic, but could have knocked up to 0.4%-pts off quarter-on-quarter... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update China stimulus will not prevent global slowdown China is the only major economy which is likely to implement a significant policy stimulus in the coming year. However, its impact on the rest of the world will be small. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (Sep.) South African manufacturing and mining data for September released today support our view that the economy pulled out of recession in Q3, but that growth was very weak. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC to talk output cuts, Tunisia rates, Egypt’s wage bill Rumours suggest that OPEC will discuss the possibility of oil output cuts this weekend, although a decision seems highly unlikely at this stage. But if oil prices fall further, as we expect... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Oct.) Chinese export growth picked up slightly last month, with no sign yet that US tariffs have had a major negative impact. Import growth also picked up, driven largely by growth in underlying volumes. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q3) We expect the slowdown in GDP growth in Q3 to continue over the coming quarters as the economy faces headwinds from tighter monetary policy and a weakening external environment. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US midterms don’t change the economic outlook The Democrats were widely expected to win control of the House in yesterday’s midterm elections and the results set the stage for two years of legislative gridlock. President Donald Trump and the... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Car emissions tests not a big deal for UK growth in Q3 While new EU emissions tests for cars appear to be responsible for a slowdown in growth in the euro-zone in Q3, we doubt it will have had much impact on UK GDP growth. However, the tests do look... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Still some slack left in Egypt’s economy Egypt’s economy has grown at a robust pace over the past couple of years, but we estimate that there is still an output gap equal to 2.0-2.5% of potential GDP. Accordingly, as demand strengthens, the... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s euro-zone retail sales data rounded off a weak quarter for the sector, implying that overall household spending rose only marginally in Q3. Nevertheless, we still think that the outlook... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
