Europe Economics Update Euro-zone growth has slowed, but recession risk small The euro-zone economy’s recent performance has been worse than we or the consensus expected. But for now at least, it seems to be a garden variety slowdown rather than something more worrying. The... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The larger-than-expected contraction in Mexican industrial production in October was driven partly by a collapse in mining output, but other parts of industry also struggled. October’s disappointing... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Nov.) & Cap. Utilisation (Q3) Base effects caused annual house price inflation to rise again in November, but it will decline in the coming months. Meanwhile, the sharp fall in capacity utilisation in the third quarter is another... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) Although industrial production growth remains strong and core inflation is staying elevated, with headline inflation down sharply and an ally of Prime Minister Modi, Shaktikanta Das, the new head of... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: More signs of strong start to Q4 Retail sales figures released today add to the evidence that South Africa maintained robust growth at the start of Q4. Inflation remained high in November, suggesting another rate hike in Q1 2019. 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s small rise in euro-zone industrial production provides some grounds for optimism that GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q4. But the big picture is that the euro-zone economy has lost momentum... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Record housing downturns in Sydney and Melbourne We estimate that house prices in Sydney will eventually decline by 20% from their peak and by 17% in Melbourne. This would make the downturn in each city the largest in modern history. The slowdown in... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Oct.) The rise in machinery orders in October was weaker than anticipated, but orders still point to rising business investment in Q4. That suggests that the slump in Q3 GDP will be reversed in the fourth... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron’s measures unlikely to boost the economy Protests in France are likely to put a serious dent in GDP growth in Q4. And while the giveaways announced yesterday will boost disposable incomes next year, any positive effect on the economy is... 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Stronger growth in Saudi Arabia won’t last Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy accelerated in Q3 but last week’s OPEC deal to cut oil output means that a fresh slowdown is on the cards in early 2019. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data points to strong start to Q4 Activity data for October suggest that South Africa’s economy retained the momentum it picked up in Q3. Even so, we retain the view that growth will probably slow over the coming months. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s recovery regaining momentum After a disappointing Q3, leading indicators suggest that Russia’s economy strengthened in Q4. We expect that GDP growth will rebound to around 1.8-2.0% y/y over the quarter as whole. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: election will not improve long-run outlook Even if a general election that has now been confirmed for 24th February passes smoothly, political uncertainty is likely to remain a drag on Thailand’s prospects. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP monthly estimate (Oct.) The weaker GDP figures for October seem to be mainly a reflection of the unwinding of some temporary factors which had boosted growth in Q3, rather than a significant slowdown in underlying activity... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q3) Nigeria’s economy accelerated very slightly in Q3, but conditions remained very weak. Headwinds, including low oil prices, are still building, adding to the downside risks to our view that growth will... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3 2018) The effects of August’s currency crisis caused Turkey’s economy to contract in Q3 and more timely evidence suggests that the downturn deepened in Q4. Our forecast that GDP will fall by 0.5% over 2019... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
