Asia Economics Weekly New currency forecasts, Taiwan’s tourism woes Having previously expected equity and currency markets to fall sharply across Emerging Asia before the end of the year, we have revised our forecasts and now expect financial markets to remain broadly... 1st November 2019 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Nord Stream 2, Turkish inflation, Romania’s budget The Danish government’s decision to approve the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline this week is widely seen as a victory for Russia, who could potentially halt energy supplies to Ukraine. But with the... 1st November 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) While the manufacturing PMI recovered in October from September’s extremely weak level, it is still consistent with a recession in the manufacturing sector. 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Moody’s outlook fears, Kwanza collapse, Springboks! Moody’s is likely to adopt a ‘negative’ outlook on South Africa’s local currency debt rating later today, paving the way for a downgrade to ‘junk’ status. The review comes days after the government... 1st November 2019 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs tell contradictory stories There was a marked divergence between China’s October official and unofficial PMIs, which makes it difficult to gauge the underlying strength of the manufacturing sector. The rise in the Caixin PMI... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Markets expect BoJ rate cut next year, we don’t The surge in retail sales in September increases the chances of a steep slump in spending after the sales tax hike on 1 st October. And the rise in the unemployment rate in September suggests that... 1st November 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI came in at 48.1 in October, which wasn’t as bad as most analysts had feared. But the measure still suggests that the economy has remained weak in recent months. 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The weak Russian and Czech manufacturing PMIs for October provide reason to expect the country’s industrial sectors to continue to struggle. Meanwhile, even though the Turkish PMI fell last month, it... 1st November 2019 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The sharp fall in the manufacturing PMI in October to a two-year low is a worrying sign that business conditions have further deteriorated. But with fiscal policy being loosened and further monetary... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) A divergence in the official and unofficial PMIs makes it unusually difficult to gauge how the economy performed at the start of Q4. On balance, growth appears to have picked up last month but... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) softened slightly last month and continue to suggest that industry remains weak. The PMIs for China gave mixed signals, but on balance provide some hope for a pickup... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political clouds gather Political risk grabbed the headlines this month, with protestors taking to the streets across the Andes and Argentina electing a new Peronist president. Demonstrations in Ecuador and Chile will weigh... 31st October 2019 · 13 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Default fears crystallising The spotlight has shifted back onto weak sovereign debt positions in Frontier Markets this month after the election of a left-wing president in Argentina and growing political instability in Lebanon... 31st October 2019 · 8 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Policy moves make headlines in key economies Policymakers in South Africa and Angola admitted the severity of their countries’ economic problems this month, while their Nigerian peers moved further down the road to autarky. South Africa’s... 31st October 2019 · 14 mins read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q3) & Unemployment (Sep.), HICP (Oct.) Italy’s economy eked out only a small expansion in Q3, and it looks set to continue performing very poorly over the coming years. We think that it will fail to grow at all in 2020. 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Investment the weak spot in Turkey’s recovery Turkey’s economy has made a strong recovery from its recession last year, but investment has continued to fall and is unlikely to make a quick turnaround over the next couple of years. 31st October 2019 · 4 mins read
