UK Economics Update Who’s investing and who’s not? The weakness in business investment since the EU referendum has been concentrated in IT & machinery, transport and non-residential buildings so those areas may enjoy the biggest rebound if there is a... 29th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economic downturn deepens Our Tracker suggests that the impact of oil production cuts caused the Saudi economy to contract in Q3. And output probably fell at a steeper pace in Q4. 28th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Lingering power problems set to drag on growth Investors’ worries about South Africa’s power sector often focus on Eskom’s growing debts. But a recent government report has also underlined the risk that the faltering grid will struggle to meet... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Oct.) With the yield curve un-inverting, our composite model indicates that the probability of a recession in 12 months’ time has fallen to 11.7%, from a recent peak of more than 20%. Nevertheless, we... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan to remain on hold next week We now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another 25bp next week, which could result in a renewed strengthening of the yen and increase the pressure on the Bank of Japan to lower... 25th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Worse is still to come for advanced economies Flash PMIs for October indicate that underlying momentum in advanced economies has continued to weaken at the start of Q4. 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) October’s marginal rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI is fairly disappointing after September’s large fall and reinforces our view that economic growth in the currency union is at a virtual... 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The decline in the manufacturing PMI to a three-year low in October is consistent with continued falls in industrial output. But a slump in inventories could be a sign that firms have underestimated... 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor Uptick in industry nudges up growth Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth edged up at the end of last quarter due to a rebound in industrial activity. But the prop from industry should be short-lived, and with the recent... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q3, provisional) GDP growth was sluggish in Q3, but looser fiscal and monetary policy should help the economy to regain some momentum in the quarters ahead. With external headwinds set to remain, the rebound in growth... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian retail sales set for a tepid recovery The weakness in Russian retail sales looks close to bottoming out, but any turnaround will be modest. This is one reason to think that the overall recovery in GDP growth will be weak and that the... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Would QE work in Korea? There have been suggestions that the Bank of Korea (BoK) might soon need to adopt some of the unconventional policy measures that are being tried by the world’s major central banks. However, evidence... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update The worst is now over Early indicators suggest that GDP growth stabilised across Emerging Asia last quarter. While we think the worst is now over for the region, the recovery will be slow going. 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Further thoughts (and charts) on the auto sector Our best guess is that vehicle production in the euro-zone will stabilise at around its current level over the next year. If so, the sector would subtract 0.2% from GDP this year, but neither add to... 21st October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) The batch of Polish activity data for September suggest that GDP growth slowed from 4.5% y/y in Q2 to 3.8-4.0% y/y in Q3. 21st October 2019 · 2 mins read
