UK Economics Update A Brexit deal would transform the near-term outlook A Brexit deal is still unlikely, but it would remove much of the uncertainty that has caused firms to hold off investment projects and consumers to rein in their spending, and would therefore result... 15th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Muted price effect understates impact of tax hike At first glance, the impact of this month’s sales tax hike on inflation and so on real incomes will be small. Headline inflation will probably rise by only 0.4%-point in October. But that’s partly... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to cut to 0.25% and launch QE The end of the housing downturn has reduced the risk of a recession and we expect GDP growth in Australia to edge up from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in 2020. However, that’s still well below potential and... 15th October 2019 · 23 mins read
UK Economics Update A Brexit deal would transform the near-term outlook A Brexit deal is still unlikely, but it would remove much of the uncertainty that has caused firms to hold off investment projects and consumers to rein in their spending, and would therefore result... 15th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s small rise in euro-zone industrial production is nowhere near enough to offset the previous two months’ declines, and so output in Q3 as a whole is likely to have fallen sharply. This... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Aug.) The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish industrial production in August is likely to prove a bump in the road, with more timely survey evidence pointing to a recovery over the coming months. That... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Could banks start charging savers if the BoJ cut rates? Recent suggestions that the Bank of Japan will cut its policy rate have fuelled speculation that Japanese banks might be forced to start passing on negative interest rates to savers. But given that... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: monetary policy set to remain loose The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) loosened policy today and given the current weakness of the economy – GDP figures also published today show growth in year-on-year terms held steady at a ten... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Diverging prospects Several large emerging markets, including Brazil, Russia and India, should emerge from recent weak patches over the coming quarters. But at an aggregate level, that will be offset by slowdowns... 11th October 2019 · 24 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The contraction in India’s industrial production in August is alarming but it should prove temporary as the effect of recent policy easing kicks in. 11th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey sanctions threat rises, Romania’s government falls The threat of sanctions against Turkey is growing and, given the context of the country’s large external debts, the fallout for local financial markets could prove to be more severe than that the... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) Mexican industrial production rose by a surprisingly brisk 0.8% m/m in August, but with the key manufacturing sector facing a slowdown, we expect that conditions for industry as a whole will remain... 11th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Baht set to remain strong, fiscal tightening in Malaysia The authorities in Thailand this week unveiled a couple of further measures designed to put downward pressure on the currency. But unless more is done to reduce the country’s large current account... 11th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Supermarket sweep, cash’s reign under threat The boom and bust in supermarket sales around last week’s sales tax hike has been interpreted by some as a sign the government’s countermeasures are not working. Afterall, most food is exempt from the... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria budget, more weakness in SA, Uganda rate cut Nigeria’s president announced his draft budget this week, the first time in several years that the document has been published in Q3. This raises the possibility that lawmakers will be able to pass it... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Not confident either economy will improve Consumer and business confidence in Australia have both recently fallen to their weakest levels in years. And we now think GDP growth in New Zealand will slow to 1.5% in 2020. That’s why we think both... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
