China Economic Outlook Slowdown delayed not averted China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But with the boom in property construction on borrowed time and headwinds from higher food inflation and cooling global demand likely to... 10th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Further slowdown in China, but recovery elsewhere Regional growth is likely to remain very weak, with slower growth in China likely to offset a modest recovery in the rest of the region. China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But... 10th October 2019 · 49 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Aug.) GDP fell on the month in August, but thanks to solid increases in May, June and July any remaining concerns that the economy fell into recession in Q3 have been well and truly banished. 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Aug.) The continued fall in machinery orders in August suggest that a last-minute investment rush ahead of October’s tax hike is looking increasingly unlikely. Either way, business investment will probably... 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downturn to deepen Our GDP Tracker suggests that the intensifying drag from oil production cuts caused the Saudi economy to slow even further at the start of Q3. Things are likely to get even worse in the coming months... 9th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Headwinds strengthening We still think that the impact of October’s sales tax hike on consumption will be smaller than after previous tax hikes. But the outlook for external demand remains poor and firms have become less... 9th October 2019 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to cut rates more sharply than most expect We now expect growth in New Zealand to ease from 2.2% in 2019 to 1.5% in 2020. Along with a rising unemployment rate, weak economic activity will prompt the RBNZ to cut rates twice next year. 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook Stimulus to drive rebound in growth India’s economy slowed sharply in the first half of the year but, with policy support being stepped up, growth should gradually recover. And despite the recent soft patch for the economy, we remain... 8th October 2019 · 19 mins read
US Economics Update What to make of the diverging manufacturing surveys Other surveys suggest that the ISM manufacturing index is over-playing the extent of the factory-sector slowdown. But the wider evidence suggests the outlook for manufacturers is still pretty poor. 7th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru’s political crisis, dire surveys in Mexico The political turmoil that erupted in Peru earlier this week now seems to be fizzling out, supporting our view that it will have a limited impact on the economy. Elsewhere, we suspect that the Mexican... 4th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Growth stable in Q3, Malaysia’s 2020 budget Countries from across the region are due to publish third quarter GDP figures over the coming weeks. The latest monthly data suggest that after slowing sharply in the first half of the year, economic... 4th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly CBN ups pressure on banks, ANC balks at reforms The Central Bank of Nigeria increased pressure on commercial banks to extend more loans this week, but we doubt that the new targets will have much effect. Elsewhere, South African leaders seem to be... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI prolongs easing cycle The Reserve Bank reverted back to a 25bp rate cut today and has left the door open for further easing in the near term. But we are firmly non-consensus in expecting modest rate hikes by the end of... 4th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA has more work to do The RBA’s interest rate cuts are running into diminishing returns as banks are protecting their net interest margins and loan demand remains muted. Meanwhile, the sluggish increase in retail sales in... 4th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Are we any closer to a rate cut? This week brought more evidence that consumers rushed to bring forward spending ahead of the tax hike that took place on Tuesday. Meanwhile, capacity shortages are diminishing and firms are becoming... 4th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Retail sales growth remained subdued in August despite the government’s tax cuts which suggests that economic activity did not recover strongly in the second half of 2019. 4th October 2019 · 2 mins read
