Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The manufacturing PMI edged up in November but has yet to break out of the range it’s hovered in since the start of the year. However, the recent improvement in the global manufacturing PMI suggests... 22nd November 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update A slow recovery ahead GDP growth was either flat or picked up slightly in most parts of Emerging Asia last quarter, and we think regional growth will rise gradually over the coming year helped by a slow recovery in exports... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Peru GDP (Q3 2019) The pick-up in Peruvian GDP growth from 1.2% y/y in Q2 to 3.0% y/y in Q3 probably marks the beginning of a sustained economic recovery. While GDP growth over this year as a whole is likely to be just... 21st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack QE will result in lower bond yields in Australia The decline in bond yields in Australia and New Zealand throughout 2019 has paused in recent months following optimism about a potential trade deal between the US and China and hawkish language from... 21st November 2019 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland Industrial Production (Q3 2019) The jump in annual Swiss industrial production growth in Q3 was skewed by base effects and masks weakness in those sectors most exposed to Germany. As Germany’s industrial recession looks set to drag... 21st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q3, Revised) The revised estimate of Singapore GDP showed that the economy bounced back a little last quarter, but while we expect this recovery to continue in the quarters ahead, it is likely to be slow going. 21st November 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Nov.) The risk of a recession occurring within the next year appears to have faded – with the yield curve un-inverting, financial conditions loosening and the incoming economic data still comfortably above... 20th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) The batch of Russian activity data for October suggest that the economy started Q4 on a firm footing following Q3’s stronger-than-expected 1.7% y/y expansion. But with inflation likely to fall further... 20th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Oct.) Import volumes fell much less in October than after the 2014 sales tax hike, supporting our view that the tax hike will dent domestic demand less this time around. Export volumes also fell in monthly... 20th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Services sector slowdown to gather pace The euro-zone’s services sector has held up relatively well so far this year. However, we expect spill-overs from the industrial recession and slowing employment growth to take a toll in the coming... 18th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Thailand only managed to nudge up in Q3, and with global growth set to drag on exports we expect the economy to remain sluggish in the quarters ahead. 18th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Share buybacks are not to blame for weak investment The recent surge in stock buybacks has largely been driven by mining and financial firms and therefore can’t explain the weakness in non-mining investment. Non-mining profit growth should rebound a... 18th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Protests persist, but fallout will vary Ongoing protests in Chile, Hong Kong and Lebanon will weigh on their economies and financial markets, but to different degrees. While the tightening of financial conditions and strikes in Chile will... 15th November 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s current account, Hungary’s strong GDP Turkey’s current account has been in surplus for three consecutive months now, but the government’s efforts to speed up the recovery will probably cause the external position to deteriorate again soon... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Domestic demand fading as main driver of growth Domestic demand appears to have been the main driver of euro-zone GDP growth in Q3 but this looks set to fade as employment growth slows. Indeed, the first surveys for November next week are likely to... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Another swing in SA output, Kwanza stable, Fiscal splurges The latest South African activity figures added to evidence that the economy contracted again in Q3. Meanwhile, Angola’s recession is likely to be prolonged into 2020 given the currency’s falls this... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
