Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to cut rates to 0.5% in 2020 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sounded cautious when it left rates on hold today and we believe that a deterioration in the economy will force the Bank to 0.5% by early next year. 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Why we don’t trust Indonesia’s GDP data Indonesia’s GDP figures lack credibility – economic growth has been far too stable over the past few years to be believable. We think a better guide to the health of the economy is our own Indonesia... 11th November 2019 · 8 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The downturn in India’s industrial production deepened in September with the result that, on this measure, industry contracted slightly across Q3 as a whole. More policy easing is likely in order to... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Sep.) Mexican industrial production fell again in September, and problems in the auto sector probably caused conditions to deteriorate further in October. This adds to the pressure for policymakers to cut... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Q3, First Estimate) While the burst of growth means that the economy avoided a recession in Q3, it’s pretty clear that underlying growth is soft and that the risks to our Q4 GDP forecast of 0.2% q/q are to the downside... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strong Q3 GDP figures likely to be the last hurrah GDP figures this week are likely to show that Central and Eastern Europe recorded another strong quarter of growth in Q3, despite ongoing weakness in the euro-zone. But more timely data suggest that... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Sep.) The continued fall in machinery orders suggests that the recent strength in capital goods shipments won’t last. While we expect the preliminary estimate of GDP due on Thursday to show a 1.0% q/q rise... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Q3 GDP figures, the fall of the wall The Q3 GDP figures due next week are likely to show that Russia’s economy struggled while Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) held up well. However, weakness in the euro-zone means we doubt that this... 8th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP: no more cuts in 2019, Malaysia SRR cut Governor Diokno was pretty emphatic earlier this week when he said that the central bank (BSP) had “absolutely” “done more than enough” this year. In response we are taking out the interest rate cut... 8th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Weakness in SA, Kwanza finds its feet, Kenya rate cap cut This week’s South African activity data added to the evidence that the economy faltered in Q3. We’ll know more when retail and mining figures are published next week, but there is an underappreciated... 8th November 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Moody’s sets a very high bar Moody’s decision to cut its outlook on India’s sovereign rating is based in part on the government’s struggle to rein in the fiscal deficit. This is justifiable if a little behind the curve. But the... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government heeds Kuroda’s call for fiscal stimulus The Bank of Japan has urged the government to address the mounting downside risks to economic activity with additional spending and the government has confirmed it will do so. Meanwhile, the available... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Turning away from freer trade India’s decision this week to opt-out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is not entirely unreasonable given the limited scope of the deal. But by excluding itself from the RCEP... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly GDP growth isn’t picking up The decline in capital goods imports over the past year suggests that business investment is set to fall further in the second half of the year . What's more, the fall in real retail sales in Q3 point... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Household Spending & Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.) The surge in household spending in September adds to the evidence of a last-minute spending spree ahead of October’s sales tax hike. While that raises the chances of a deep slump in the following... 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO, Saudi fiscal policy, Lebanese banks A few more details of the Aramco IPO have trickled out in the last few days and we now know that 2% of the firm will be listed on the Tadawul on 11th December. The funds from the IPO wouldn’t be quite... 7th November 2019 · 7 mins read
