Long Run Update Has the shift in fiscal policy altered the UK’s prospects? In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Long Run Update to clients of our UK Economics Service. If the UK government’s “new era of fiscal policy” boosts GDP growth as planned, the UK’s... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ risks turmoil even if governments stay responsible While we don’t expect euro-zone governments to engage in UK-style large discretionary fiscal loosening, Italy’s weak public finances and/or the ECB’s likely reluctance to intervene in government bond... 30th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss and Nordic economies heading south This week we got yet more data showing that economies in the region are slowing. Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator for September plummeted and suggested that growth has abruptly stalled, and... 30th September 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Aug.) The surge in interest rate expectations since the Chancellor’s “mini-budget” will sharply raise the cost of borrowing in the economy. We now expect Bank rate to reach a peak of 5.00% which will push... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash Inflation (Sep.) & Unemployment (Aug.) 30th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Upcoming travel subsidies a flash in the inflation pan The government announced this week that it will once again be providing travel subsidies, this time under the National Travel Discount (NTD) program, from 11th October through December. Prefectural... 30th September 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update RBI frontloads again but pace of tightening set to slow The RBI hiked the repo rate by another 50bp (to 5.90%) today and the communications give a clear steer that the tightening cycle still has further to run. But with inflation set to slow, we think the... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Q2 Final) The good news is that the economy is not already in recession. The bad news is that contrary to previous thinking, it still hasn’t returned to pre-pandemic levels. It’s the only G7 economy in that... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Sep.) The surveys suggest that China’s economy continued to lose momentum in September, with the global downturn weighing on exports and virus disruptions dealing a fresh blow to services activity. While... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Retail Sales & Activity (Aug. 22) The unemployment rate dropped to a four-month low in August and a continued rise in the job-to-applicant ratio suggests that the labour market will continue to tighten. Meanwhile, both industrial... 30th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Aug. 22) 30th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: monetary tightening now biting hard Higher interest rates are already having an impact in CEE and a large part of the tightening of monetary conditions has yet to feed through. This will add to the headwinds facing growth in the coming... 29th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: Spotlight – Economic fracturing, commodities and climate change 20th October 2022, 9:00AM BST
