UK Economics Chancellor supports household incomes, but boosts inflation The extra financial support for households announced by the Chancellor today will help millions of households cope better with the cost of living crisis. But it won’t relieve all the pain and may mean... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Retail sales values were unchanged month-to-month in March, as a further supply-related slump in motor vehicle sales offset a largely price-related surge in gasoline station sales and solid increases... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Outbreaks knock output back to 2019 levels Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that all of China’s pandemic-era growth has been reversed by recent lockdowns, with output in April no higher than during 2019. Activity should start to rebound... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia election: judging the opportunities and risks Colombia’s upcoming presidential election could result in the country’s first left-wing government in recent decades, headed by Gustavo Petro. While he is unlikely to be as radical as many expect... 26th May 2022 · 17 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Stagflation stalking the markets If we are right in expecting inflationary pressure to stay strong even as the economy gets dangerously close to a recession, then the prices of gilts and UK equities will probably fall further over... 26th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Monetary tightening stepped up A majority of central banks in the region hiked interest rates over the past month. In the Gulf, central banks raised interest rates in line with the Federal Reserve, although this won’t necessarily... 26th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q1 2022) We estimate that private investment fell by 1.3% q/q in Q1, but firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest investment will strengthen before long. 26th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Inventory rebound shows shortages easing fitfully The rapid rebuilding of inventories over the past few quarters has left it close to normal levels in some sectors. But the bigger picture is that economy-wide inventories are still exceptionally lean... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Chinese stimulus may not save the day this time around China’s policymakers have had a busy few weeks. Between the ongoing lockdown policy, the depreciation of the renminbi, and the various fiscal and monetary stimulus measures that have been rolled out... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (May) For all the fears that the tightening of financial conditions over the past few months will push the economy into recession, our composite model still puts the risks over the next 12 months at close... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update War in Ukraine inflames food insecurity in Africa The outsize role of agriculture in Sub-Saharan African economies and the tendency to rely on imported food products makes the region particularly vulnerable to the agricultural shock caused by the war... 25th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Global slowdown and war spillovers to hit CEE exports Exports from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) face growing headwinds, and this feeds into our below consensus view on economic growth in the region. The larger economies in CEE such as Poland and... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The modest 0.4% m/m rise in durable goods orders in April suggests that rate-sensitive business equipment investment growth is beginning to slow, with underlying capital goods shipments consistent... 25th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Equity price falls add to headwinds to growth Recent falls in equity prices have not prompted downgrades to our global growth forecasts since the passthrough to the real economy is limited and part of the bad news has already been factored in to... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q1, revised) The decent upwards revision to Q1 GDP data reveals that the economy gained more momentum at the end of the quarter, a trend which is likely to carry on throughout Q2. Asia Drop-In (26th May, 0900 BST... 25th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Orders slowing and price pressures still acute The flash PMIs for May suggest that activity slowed in most DMs compared to April, and weaker growth in new orders points to a further slowdown to come. There were some positive developments on the... 24th May 2022 · 2 mins read
