Five years ago, we forecast that China’s trend economic growth would be as little as 2% by the end of this decade. At the time, it was a decidedly minority view. But, as featured on the cover of The Economist last week, our work in 2018 identified many challenges now face China’s growth outlook, including:
- An investment-intensive growth model hitting its limits;
- A rapidly-deteriorating demographic outlook;
- And above all, a policymaking approach under Xi Jinping that “seems more likely to hinder than help future growth.”
Five years on, how does that call stack up? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hosted a discussion with Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams about our long-held China view and how it compares with the current consensus.
During this 20-minute session, Neil and Mark will be answered client questions about the long-term China outlook as they discussed key structural and political headwinds and the implications for the global economy.
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