Europe Data Response EC Survey (May) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator for May was almost unchanged from April, well below its pre-Ukraine war level and consistent with economic activity stagnating in Q2. The survey also suggests that... 30th May 2022 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Policymakers trying to revive property sales China’s beleaguered property developers may soon see some respite both from their inability to borrow at reasonable rates and from sliding property sales. Last week, PBOC Governor said that the... 30th May 2022 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap We doubt near-term headwinds for the dollar will last The US dollar seems set to end the week lower against most major currencies, a third successive weekly decline, and a drop of ~3% in the DXY index from its multi-year high earlier this month. In part... 27th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Trade Monitor More signs that softer demand is weighing on trade After a growth spurt late last year, world trade flatlined in Q1. The Ukraine war and lockdowns in China raised concerns that renewed supply bottlenecks would choke up world trade. However... 27th May 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Strong consumer; “greedflation” not a thing The 0.7% jump in real consumption in April, together with the upward revision to March’s gain leaves consumption on track for a 5% annualised gain in the second quarter. Thanks to a rapid rebound in... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s economy and central bank chief under pressure The rumours (subsequently denied) that Nigeria’s central bank governor had been sacked after delivering an interest rate hike raise further questions over the CBN’s independence. Even if the governor... 27th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Petrobras debacle, Banxico minutes, Colombia votes The news this week that Brazil’s President Bolsonaro sacked the CEO of oil giant Petrobras, José Mauro Coelho, provides a worrying sign about the direction of policymaking in the run-up to October’s... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia default, Hungary budget plans, dovish CNB? A Russian sovereign default moved a step closer this week, although in practice it’s unlikely to have a major impact on the economy. In the meantime, high oil and gas revenues have given the... 27th May 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Goods are piling up at Chinese factories Soaring inventories of finished goods in China suggest that, contrary to most expectations, recent lockdowns are likely to prove disinflationary domestically. The glut of supply in China is likely to... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI spoiler alert, sugar export ban Comments from RBI Governor Das this week provided more support for our view that the RBI will frontload its monetary policy tightening with a 50bp hike in June, and that the Reserve Bank will continue... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack Shifting policy mix The RBI kicked off its tightening cycle this month with a 40bp hike to the repo rate (to 4.40%) in an unscheduled policy announcement. The minutes to that meeting show that several MPC members are... 27th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soaring inflation to trump sluggish activity for RBA While the economic data released this week were a mixed bag, we think that soaring inflation will trump any slowdown in activity. Indeed, with wholesale electricity prices surging to record highs, it... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Corporate tax shakeup, Shanghai parts shortages The government aims to lift the standard corporate tax rate while providing more generous tax breaks for capital spending. We doubt this will have a noticeable impact on business investment, not least... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Apr. 2022) The fourth consecutive rise in retail sales values in April underlines that consumers are not throwing in the towel in the face of falling real incomes and rising interest rates. 27th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation still rising With core CPI inflation still rising, the Bank of Canada has no choice but to continue hiking its policy rate “forcefully’ back toward neutral. All three of the core measures tracked by the Bank are... 26th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth hit by China lockdown and war in Ukraine Recently-released Q1 GDP figures showed that most EMs performed well at the start of this year, but headwinds are growing. Lockdowns are dealing a heavy blow to China’s economy and spillovers from the... 26th May 2022 · 2 mins read
