Latin America Chart Pack Slowdown underway Latin American economies held up well in early part of this year, helped by the surge in commodity prices brought about by the war in Ukraine. But there are signs that activity is now weakening... 27th July 2022 · 12 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) The jump in durable goods orders in June mainly reflected a surge in defence aircraft orders. Private equipment investment growth still looks to have slowed in the second quarter, although the latest... 27th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies feeling the oil boost The recently-released activity data from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain confirmed that strong hydrocarbon production supported rapid economic growth at the start of this year. And strong... 27th July 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (June) Bank lending growth accelerated further in June, but lenders expect the demand for loans to slow sharply in the coming months, adding to the reasons to expect the economy to fall into recession... 27th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Weaker new home sales to drag down construction The extent of the downturn in the housing market and broader residential investment will determine whether the economy enters a recession in the next 12 months, and in that respect there has been some... 26th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM risks building as global backdrop worsens EM GDP growth will be weaker than most expect in 2022 and 2023 as China’s economy rebounds only moderately and activity slows elsewhere. Inflation is set to remain elevated for some time yet, and... 26th July 2022 · 28 mins read
Global Economics Update The natural gas crisis and the global economy The news today that Gazprom will further reduce its natural gas supply to Europe increases the likelihood of recessions in the euro-zone, UK and parts of Emerging Europe. It also supports our view... 26th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Growth to slow in the second half of the year GDP figures for Korea released earlier today showed economic growth accelerated in the second quarter thanks to a strong rebound in private consumption as the economy enjoyed a reopening bounce. This... 26th July 2022 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Italy suffer a repeat of 2018? Italy’s next government is unlikely to bring the country’s future in the euro-zone into doubt, in a repeat of the turmoil that we saw after the 2018 election. But it will probably run looser fiscal... 26th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q2) Korean GDP growth picked up slightly in the first quarter, but this is likely to be as good as it gets for the economy. We expect growth to slow in the second half of 2022 as rising interest rates... 26th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Central banks may yet put more upward pressure on bond yields We expect elevated inflation to keep developed market (DM) central banks hiking rates aggressively this year, even as economies slow sharply, in some cases falling into recession. Accordingly, we... 25th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) The further decline in the German Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in July adds to the evidence that the German economy is on the brink of a recession as high energy prices and worries about energy... 25th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s trade deficit, Chilean peso’s rollercoaster The somewhat surprising widening of Colombia’s trade deficit in May suggests that the current account deficit isn’t narrowing as we’d expected. This will keep the peso on the backfoot and the central... 22nd July 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation finally peaks CPI inflation has finally peaked but this will not be enough to prevent further large interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada, especially as there is little evidence yet that the weakening housing... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Recessions knocking at the door Another month, another set of downbeat PMIs for advanced economies. The demand indicators weakened markedly in the US and the euro-zone for the second month in a row, crossing over into recessionary... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) Retail sales rose by a bit more than we anticipated in May, but the preliminary estimate implies that most of the gain in sales volumes was reversed in June and the slump in consumer confidence... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
