Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (October) Although the headline ZEW investor sentiment indicator edged up in October it is still at a very low level, while the current conditions index – which is more closely corelated with GDP – actually... 18th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q3) The Bank of Canada’s quarterly surveys offer some evidence that aggressive policy tightening is having the intended effects, with widespread fears of recession leading to a moderation in wage... 17th October 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Chancellor Statement (17th Oct.) The Chancellor didn’t just do a further U-turn on the Truss/Kwarteng policies in his statement today, he essentially wiped them out in an attempt to reassure the financial markets that the government... 17th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Another intervention wouldn’t reverse yen weakness With the yen currently trading just below 149, it now appears to be a question of when and not if policymakers step in again. But as recent weeks and the Asian Financial Crisis have shown, such... 17th October 2022 · 11 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Labour market resilience starting to fade The latest data suggest that the labour market strength, which has been a key feature of advanced economies this year, might be coming to an end. Admittedly, unemployment rates have generally been... 14th October 2022 · 12 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Aug.) The 1.7% m/m decline in real manufacturing sales in August more than reversed the gains over the preceding couple of months, leaving volumes at a seven-month low. Admittedly, sales are being held back... 14th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) With retail sales unchanged in September there is still little evidence that the boost to purchasing power from the earlier sharp fall in gasoline prices has helped real consumption. Energy prices are... 14th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Spillovers from China’s zero-COVID to last to 2024 China’s strict border controls are holding back the tourism recovery in the rest of the region. With no sign that Beijing is in any hurry to change its zero-COVID policy, it will likely take years for... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA still likely to lift rates to 3.6% by mid-2023 The RBA downplayed the importance of its revised estimate of the neutral interest rate published this week. For what it’s worth though, the Bank’s analysis implies that the cash rate remains below... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS tightens despite bleak growth outlook The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened policy today, in an attempt to contain elevated price pressures, but with inflation likely to fall in the coming quarters and the economy set to... 14th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Region heading for recession Emerging European economies are facing a difficult winter due to the energy crisis as well as headwinds from weakening demand for exports and tightening external financing conditions. We expect almost... 13th October 2022 · 29 mins read
India Economic Outlook Pace of tightening set to slow The RBI has frontloaded policy tightening over recent months but with inflation peaking and economic headwinds building, we think the central bank will now slow the pace of tightening and revert to... 13th October 2022 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egypt to suffer short-term economic pain Spillovers from the war in Ukraine and tighter external financing conditions have exacerbated strains in Egypt’s balance of payments and we think the pound needs to fall a lot further. This will add... 13th October 2022 · 15 mins read
