Canada Chart Pack Construction the next shoe to drop The big surprise so far this year has been the resilience of housing starts which, despite falling from their 10-month high of 300,000 annualised in September, remained at a relatively strong 267,000... 24th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Past peak inflation – what now for EM policymakers? 1669906800 Inflation appears to have finally peaked for emerging markets – but how quickly will price pressures now ease, and what will that mean for the 2023 outlook?
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Signs of resilience, but recession still likely Growing domestic and external headwinds have taken a bigger toll on the region’s economies in recent months, with growth slowing sharply in Turkey and Israel in Q3 and GDP contracting outright in... 24th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Nigeria slowed to 2.2% y/y in Q3 as woes in the oil sector intensified and key parts of the non-oil economy, such as agriculture and manufacturing, performed poorly. Even with pre... 24th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update When will EM central banks turn to interest rate cuts? Monetary tightening cycles in EMs are advanced relative to DMs, and are now drawing to a close in many countries. Elevated inflation will mean that policy will stay tight over the coming months, but... 24th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in November does not change the big picture that the German economy is likely to contract in Q4. 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (November) 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Nov. 2022) November’s flash PMIs point to further weakness in the manufacturing sector, corroborating firms’ forecasts. At the same time, services activity appears to be struggling due to the rapid rise in... 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to continued downturn and easing inflation November’s flash PMIs were a mixed bag, with unexpected increases in Europe and a sharp fall in the US. However, the headline indices are now at levels consistent with falling activity in all major... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recession odds rising Despite the resilience evident in the latest round of hard data, our recession tracker models suggest the odds of a downturn next year are still rising. 23rd November 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Global recession adds to headwinds facing Lat Am With the global economy headed for recession and commodity prices likely to come off their recent highs, Latin American exports will struggle over the coming quarters. Weakening global growth is also... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM inflation has passed the peak Having surged for the best part of two years, EM inflation appears to have passed the peak in this cycle. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation dropped from 7.8% y/y in September to 7.4% y/y in... 23rd November 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Nov.) While the composite flash PMI improved marginally in November, it stayed firmly below the no-change level of 50.0, which is consistent with our view that the economy is already in recession. However... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack North Africa turns to IMF to ease external strains Economies across North Africa have endured severe balance of payments strains this year and governments in Egypt and Tunisia finally secured staff-level agreements with the IMF over the past month... 23rd November 2022 · 10 mins read
