Asia Economics Weekly Currency volatility, Sri Lanka budget, Malaysia GE15 The rebound in Asian currencies triggered by the weaker-than-expected US CPI data for October already appears to be running out of steam, and we expect more weakness over the coming months as a... 18th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway performing well, Ingves bows out Norway’s Q3 GDP data support our view that the country will be one of Europe’s best performers in the coming quarters, but it won’t be immune to the weakness elsewhere in the continent. Next week, we... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q3) The 1.2% q/q contraction in Chile’s economy in Q3 was even steeper than expected and we think that the downturn has further to run – our forecasts is for the economy to contract by 1.3% over 2023 as a... 18th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession to begin in Q4 as inflation broadens We doubt that the recent strength in some of the official euro-zone activity data will last. The timelier surveys unanimously point to weaker activity to come, and the headwinds to growth from rising... 18th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak yen and COVID not to blame for Q3 GDP fall Q3 saw a surprise contraction in GDP that many media outlets blamed on the surge in virus cases and the slide in the yen’s value during the quarter. We think instead that the real culprits were a... 18th November 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Signs of domestic demand softening There are signs in the latest data that domestic demand is softening, though not to the extent that it should raise alarm at the central bank. This reinforces our view that the tightening cycle still... 18th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisation, Saudi investment, Qatar World Cup Egypt’s state ownership policy document could come into effect in before the end of this year, but it remains to be seen how willing the authorities are to relinquish their control over the economy... 17th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Region slowing Data released over the past month or so suggest that most economies across the region fared well in Q3. GDP growth in Mexico and Colombia came in well above expectations and hard activity data from... 17th November 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Higher interest rates exposing private sector debt risks Higher interest rates and larger private sector debt burdens mean that debt interest service ratios could rise to levels last seen in the 1990s in many EMs next year. This is unlikely to be a major... 17th November 2022 · 18 mins read
Europe Economics Update Irish statistical quirks flattering EZ growth rate Euro-zone industrial production and GDP have been stronger than we had expected so far this year. Several factors have contributed to this, but one of them is the distortions to Ireland’s economic... 16th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2022) Russia’s economy appeared to stabilise in Q3 as the 4% y/y contraction in GDP reported by Rosstat today is consistent with output rising marginally in seasonally-adjusted q/q terms. That said, there’s... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Oct.) The strength of underlying retail sales despite higher borrowing costs is encouraging, but manufacturing is slowly succumbing to the global malaise. 16th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q3 2022) The slowdown in GDP growth in Israel in Q3, to 2.1% q/q annualised, was in line with expectations as private consumption contracted and net trade exerted a drag. We think Israel’s economy will hold up... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Sep.) September’s hard activity data out of South Africa were a mixed bag, but it looks like the economy narrowly avoided another contraction in Q3 (and thus a technical recession). Even so, with headwinds... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
