China Economic Outlook Bumpy road before zero-COVID is left behind The authorities are making policy changes to address two of the key drags on China’s economy, the zero-COVID policy and the property sector downturn. But it will be a while before these efforts bear... 9th December 2022 · 23 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Nov.) The declines in headline and core inflation in November won’t stop the Norges Bank from raising interest rates by 25bp next week. But they support our view that the tightening cycle is very nearly... 9th December 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook End of tightening in sight The RBI has slowed the pace of rate hikes and is likely to call a halt to tightening in early 2023. As the economy weakens, rate cuts could come onto the agenda by late next year and materialise in... 8th December 2022 · 19 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Central banks to ease off the brakes as growth slows The recent resilience of economic activity in Latin America will not last and we think that growth will slow by more than most expect in 2023. Having been among the first to tighten monetary policy... 7th December 2022 · 25 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Firmer evidence of easing price pressures Data over the past month have brought the clearest signs yet that inflation is starting to ease. Our estimate of world CPI inflation fell for the first time in 15 months in October, from 7.9% to 7.7%... 7th December 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) German industrial production once again held up better than expected in October. But this resilience was driven partly by a recovery in construction which tends to be volatile. We still expect high... 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q3 22) The decent rise in Q3 GDP probably marks the last hurrah for Australia’s economy as tighter monetary policy and falling real incomes weigh on spending. 7th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa’s economy rebounded in Q3, with a 1.6% q/q expansion, but the underlying picture was less rosy as growth was supported by a build-up of inventories; household spending contracted... 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tweaking our forecasts: slightly shallower recession We are nudging up our euro-zone GDP forecast slightly to reflect the small improvement in the economic data in recent months and an easing of the energy crisis. Nonetheless, we still think euro-zone... 6th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to fall rapidly in 2023, as recession bites We expect the lagged impact of higher interest rates to push the real economy into a mild recession next year. Although that downturn will be accompanied by only a modest rebound in the unemployment... 5th December 2022 · 24 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final PMIs (Nov.) The sharp drop in euro-zone retail spending in October is consistent with our view that – notwithstanding the slight uptick in some business surveys recently – the economy is entering recession. With... 5th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Nov.) November’s batch of PMIs provide further evidence that the non-oil sectors in the Gulf economies are rounding off the year on a strong footing. 5th December 2022 · 2 mins read
